@article{fdi:010082830,
  title = {{C}ombining {CMIP} data with a regional convection-permitting model and observations to project extreme rainfall under climate change},
  author = {{K}lein, {C}. and {J}ackson, {L}. {S}. and {P}arker, {D}. {J}. and {M}arsham, {J}. {H}. and {T}aylor, {C}. {M}. and {R}owell, {D}. {P}. and {G}uichard, {F}. and {V}ischel, {T}. and {F}amien, {A}. {M}. and {D}iedhiou, {A}rona},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{D}ue to associated hydrological risks, there is an urgent need to provide plausible quantified changes in future extreme rainfall rates. {C}onvection-permitting ({CP}) climate simulations represent a major advance in capturing extreme rainfall and its sensitivities to atmospheric changes under global warming. {H}owever, they are computationally costly, limiting uncertainty evaluation in ensembles and covered time periods. {T}his is in contrast to the {C}limate {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject ({CMIP}) 5 and 6 ensembles, which cannot capture relevant convective processes, but provide a range of plausible projections for atmospheric drivers of rainfall change. {H}ere, we quantify the sensitivity of extreme rainfall within {W}est {A}frican storms to changes in atmospheric rainfall drivers, using both observations and a {CP} projection representing a decade under the {R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athway 8.5 around 2100. {W}e illustrate how these physical relationships can then be used to reconstruct better-informed extreme rainfall changes from {CMIP}, including for time periods not covered by the {CP} model. {W}e find reconstructed hourly extreme rainfall over the {S}ahel increases across all {CMIP} models, with a plausible range of 37%-75% for 2070-2100 (mean 55%, and 18%-30% for 2030-2060). {T}his is considerably higher than the +0-60% (mean +30%) we obtain from a traditional extreme rainfall metric based on raw daily {CMIP} rainfall, suggesting such analyses can underestimate extreme rainfall intensification. {W}e conclude that process-based rainfall scaling is a useful approach for creating time-evolving rainfall projections in line with {CP} model behaviour, reconstructing important information for medium-term decision making. {T}his approach also better enables the communication of uncertainties in extreme rainfall projections that reflect our current state of knowledge on its response to global warming, away from the limitations of coarse-scale climate models alone.},
  keywords = {{CMIP} ; mesoscale convective system ; {W}est {A}frica ; climate projection ; atmospheric moisture scaling ; convection-permitting ; extreme rainfall ; {AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}nvironmental {R}esearch {L}etters},
  volume = {16},
  numero = {10},
  pages = {104023 [11 p.]},
  ISSN = {1748-9326},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac26f1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082830},
}