@article{fdi:010082812,
  title = {{H}igh-resolution marine data and transient simulations support orbital forcing of {ENSO} amplitude since the mid-{H}olocene},
  author = {{C}arre, {M}. and {B}raconnot, {P}. and {E}lliot, {M}. and d'{A}gostino, {R}. and {S}churer, {A}. and {S}hi, {X}. {X}. and {M}arti, {O}. and {L}ohmann, {G}. and {J}ungclaus, {J}. and {C}heddadi, {R}. and di {C}arlo, {I}. {A}. and {C}ardich, {J}. and {O}choa, {D}. and {G}ismondi, {R}. {S}. and {P}erez, {A}. and {R}omero, {P}. {E}. and {T}urcq, {B}runo and {C}orrege, {T}. and {H}arrison, {S}. {P}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{L}ack of constraint on spatial and long-term temporal variability of the {E}l {N}ino southern {O}scillation ({ENSO}) and its sensitivity to external forcing limit our ability to evaluate climate models and {ENSO} future projections. {C}urrent knowledge of {H}olocene {ENSO} variability derived from paleoclimate reconstructions does not separate the role of insolation forcing from internal climate variability. {U}sing an updated synthesis of coral and bivalve monthly resolved records, we build composite records of seasonality and interannual variability in four regions of the tropical {P}acific: {E}astern {P}acific ({EP}), {C}entral {P}acific ({CP}), {W}estern {P}acific ({WP}) and {S}outh {W}est {P}acific ({SWP}). {A}n analysis of the uncertainties due to the sampling of chaotic multidecadal to centennial variability by short records allows for an objective comparison with transient simulations (mid-{H}olocene to present) performed using four different {E}arth {S}ystem models. {S}ea surface temperature and pseudo-delta {O}-18 are used in model-data comparisons to assess the potential influence of hydroclimate change on records. {W}e confirm the significance of the {H}olocene {ENSO} minimum ({HEM}) 3-6ka compared to low frequency unforced modulation of {ENSO}, with a reduction of {ENSO} variance of similar to 50 % in {EP} and similar to 80 % in {CP}. {T}he approach suggests that the increasing trend of {ENSO} since 6ka can be attributed to insolation, while models underestimate {ENSO} sensitivity to orbital forcing by a factor of 4.7 compared to data, even when accounting for the large multidecadal variability. {P}recession-induced change in seasonal temperature range is positively linked to {ENSO} variance in {EP} and to a lesser extent in other regions, in both models and observations. {O}ur regional approach yields insights into the past spatial expression of {ENSO} across the tropical {P}acific. {I}n the {SWP}, today under the influence of the {S}outh {P}acific {C}onvergence {Z}one ({SPCZ}), interannual variability was increased by similar to 200 % during the {HEM}, indicating that {SPCZ} variability is independent from {ENSO} on millennial time scales.},
  keywords = {{E}l nino southern oscillation ; {H}olocene ; {E}arth system models ; {I}nsolation ; {C}orals ; {B}ivalves ; {T}ropical pacific ; {PACIFIQUE} ; {ZONE} {TROPICALE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{Q}uaternary {S}cience {R}eviews},
  volume = {268},
  numero = {},
  pages = {107125 [23 p.]},
  ISSN = {0277-3791},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107125},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082812},
}