@article{fdi:010082592,
  title = {{P}otential alien ranges of {E}uropean plants will shrink in the future, but less so for already naturalized than for not yet naturalized species},
  author = {{P}outeau, {R}obin and {B}iurrun, {I}. and {B}runel, {C}aroline and {C}hytry, {M}. and {D}awson, {W}. and {E}ssl, {F}. and {F}ristoe, {T}. and {H}aveman, {R}. and {H}obohm, {C}. and {J}ansen, {F}. and {K}reft, {H}. and {L}enoir, {J}. and {L}enzner, {B}. and {M}eyer, {C}. and {M}oeslund, {J}. {E}. and {P}ergl, {J}. and {P}ysek, {P}. and {S}venning, {J}. {C}. and {T}huiller, {W}. and {W}eigelt, {P}. and {W}ohlgemuth, {T}. and {Y}ang, {Q}. and van {K}leunen, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}ims {T}he rapid increase in the number of species that have naturalized beyond their native range is among the most apparent features of the {A}nthropocene. {H}ow alien species will respond to other processes of future global changes is an emerging concern and remains poorly misunderstood. {W}e therefore ask whether naturalized species will respond to climate and land use change differently than those species not yet naturalized anywhere in the world. {L}ocation {G}lobal. {M}ethods {W}e investigated future changes in the potential alien range of vascular plant species endemic to {E}urope that are either naturalized (n = 272) or not yet naturalized (1,213) outside of {E}urope. {P}otential ranges were estimated based on projections of species distribution models using 20 future climate-change scenarios. {W}e mapped current and future global centres of naturalization risk. {W}e also analysed expected changes in latitudinal, elevational and areal extent of species' potential alien ranges. {R}esults {W}e showed a large potential for more worldwide naturalizations of {E}uropean plants currently and in the future. {T}he centres of naturalization risk for naturalized and non-naturalized plants largely overlapped, and their location did not change much under projected future climates. {N}evertheless, naturalized plants had their potential range shifting poleward over larger distances, whereas the non-naturalized ones had their potential elevational ranges shifting further upslope under the most severe climate change scenarios. {A}s a result, climate and land use changes are predicted to shrink the potential alien range of {E}uropean plants, but less so for already naturalized than for non-naturalized species. {M}ain conclusions {W}hile currently non-naturalized plants originate frequently from mountain ranges or boreal and {M}editerranean biomes in {E}urope, the naturalized ones usually occur at low elevations, close to human centres of activities. {A}s the latter are expected to increase worldwide, this could explain why the potential alien range of already naturalized plants will shrink less.},
  keywords = {{A}lien plant species ; biological invasions ; climate change ; distributional range shift ; interacting effect of global changes ; land ; use change ; macroecology ; migration ; non-analogue climate ; species ; distribution model ; {EUROPE} ; {MONDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{D}iversity and {D}istributions},
  volume = {27},
  numero = {11},
  pages = {2063--2076},
  ISSN = {1366-9516},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1111/ddi.13378},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082592},
}