@article{fdi:010082134,
  title = {{S}kilful decadal predictions of subpolar {N}orth {A}tlantic {SST}s using {CMIP} model-analogues},
  author = {{M}enary, {M}. {B}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette and {R}obson, {J}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{P}redicting regional climate variability is a key goal of initialised decadal predictions and the {N}orth {A}tlantic has been a major focus due to its high level of predictability and potential impact on {E}uropean climate. {T}hese predictions often focus on decadal variability in sea surface temperatures ({SST}s) in the {N}orth {A}tlantic subpolar gyre ({NA} {SPG}). {I}n order to understand the value of initialisation, and justify the high costs of such systems, predictions are routinely measured against technologically simpler benchmarks. {H}ere, we present a new model-analogue benchmark that aims to leverage the latent information in uninitialised climate model simulations to make decadal predictions of {NA} {SPG} {SST}s. {T}his system searches through more than one hundred thousand simulated years in {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject archives and yields skilful predictions in its target region comparable to initialised systems. {A}nalysis of the underlying behaviour of the system suggests the origins of this skill are physically plausible. {S}uch a system can provide a useful benchmark for initialised systems within the {NA} {SPG} and also suggests that the limits in initialised decadal prediction skill in this region have not yet been reached.},
  keywords = {{AMOC} ; decadal prediction ; analogue ; {CMIP}5 ; {CMIP}6 ; {N}orth {A}tlantic ; sea ; surface temperatures ; {ATLANTIQUE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}nvironmental {R}esearch {L}etters},
  volume = {16},
  numero = {6},
  pages = {064090 [10 ]},
  ISSN = {1748-9326},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac06fb},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082134},
}