@article{fdi:010082007, title = {{P}redicted distributions and abundances of the sea turtle 'lost years' in the western {N}orth {A}tlantic {O}cean}, author = {{P}utman, {N}.{F}. and {S}eney, {E}.{E}. and {V}erley, {P}hilippe and {S}haver, {D}..{J}. and {L}opez-{C}astro, {M}.{C}. and {C}ook, {M}. and {G}uzman, {V}. and {B}rost, {B}. and {C}eriani, {S}.{A}. and {G}onzalez {D}iaz {M}iron, {R}. de {J}. and {P}ena, {L}.{J}. and {T}zeek, {M}. and {V}alverde, {R}.{A}. and {C}anton, {C}.{C}.{G}. and {H}owell, {L}. and {R}avell {L}ey, {J}.{A}. and {T}umlin, {M}.{C}. and {T}eas, {W}.{G}. and {C}aillouet {J}r, {C}.{W}. and {C}uevas, {E}. and {G}allaway, {B}..{J}. and {R}ichards, {P}.{M}. and {M}ansfield, {K}.{L}.}, editor = {}, language = {{ENG}}, abstract = {{O}ceanic dispersal characterizes the early juvenile life-stages of numerous marine species of conservation concern. {T}his early stage may be a 'critical period' for many species, playing an overriding role in population dynamics. {O}ften, relatively little information is available on their distribution during this period, limiting the effectiveness of efforts to understand environmental and anthropogenic impacts on these species. {H}ere we present a simple model to predict annual variation in the distribution and abundance of oceanic-stage juvenile sea turtles based on species'reproductive output, movement and mortality. {W}e simulated dispersal of 25 cohorts (1993-2017) of oceanic-stage juveniles by tracking the movements of virtual hatchling sea turtles released in a hind-cast ocean circulation model. {W}e then used estimates of annual hatchling production from {K}emp's ridley {L}epidochelys kempii (n = 3), green {C}helonia mydas (n = 8) and loggerhead {C}aretta caretta (n = 5) nesting areas in the northwestern {A}tlantic (inclusive of the {O}ceanic dispersal characterizes the early juvenile life-stages of numerous marine species of conservation concern. {T}his early stage may be a 'critical period' for many species, playing an overriding role in population dynamics. {O}ften, relatively little information is available on their distribution during this period, limiting the effectiveness of efforts to understand environmental and anthropogenic impacts on these species. {H}ere we present a simple model to predict annual variation in the distribution and abundance of oceanic-stage juvenile sea turtles based on species' reproductive output, movement and mortality. {W}e simulated dispersal of 25 cohorts (1993-2017) of oceanic-stage juveniles by tracking the movements of virtual hatchling sea turtles released in a hind-cast ocean circulation model. {W}e then used estimates of annual hatchling production from {K}emp's ridley {L}epidochelys kempii (n = 3), green {C}helonia mydas (n = 8) and loggerhead {C}aretta caretta (n = 5) nesting areas in the northwestern {A}tlantic (inclusive of the {G}ulf of {M}exico, {C}aribbean {S}ea and eastern seaboard of the {U}.{S}.) and their stage-specifc mortality rates to weight dispersal predictions. {T}he model's predictions indicate spatial heterogeneity in turtle distribution across their marine range, identify locations of increasing turtle abundance (notably along the {U}.{S}. coast), and provide valuable context for temporal variation in the stranding of young sea turtles across the {G}ulf of {M}exico. {F}urther effort to collect demographic, distribution and behavioral data that refine, complement and extend the utility of this modeling approach for sea turtles and other dispersive marine taxa is warranted. {F}inally, generating these spatially-explicit predictions of turtle abundance required extensive international collaboration among scientists; our findings indicate that continued conservation of these sea turtle populations and the management of the numerous anthropogenic activities that operate in the northwestern {A}tlantic {O}cean will require similar international coordination.}, keywords = {{ATLANTIQUE} ; {ETATS} {UNIS} ; {MEXIQUE} ; {GOLFE} {DU} {MEXIQUE}}, booktitle = {}, journal = {{E}cography}, volume = {43}, numero = {4}, pages = {506--517}, ISSN = {0906-7590}, year = {2020}, DOI = {10.1111/ecog.04929}, URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010082007}, }