@article{fdi:010081123,
  title = {{I}mprint of chaotic ocean variability on transports in the southwestern {P}acific at interannual timescales},
  author = {{C}ravatte, {S}ophie and {S}erazin, {G}. and {P}enduff, {T}. and {M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he southwestern {P}acific {O}cean sits at a bifurcation where southern subtropical waters are redistributed equatorward and poleward by different ocean currents. {T}he processes governing the interannual variability of these currents are not completely understood. {T}his issue is investigated using a probabilistic modeling strategy that allows disentangling the atmospherically forced deterministic ocean variability and the chaotic intrinsic ocean variability. {A} large ensemble of 50 simulations performed with the same ocean general circulation model ({OGCM}) driven by the same realistic atmospheric forcing and only differing by a small initial perturbation is analyzed over 1980-2015. {O}ur results show that, in the southwestern {P}acific, the interannual variability of the transports is strongly dominated by chaotic ocean variability south of 20 degrees {S}. {I}n the tropics, while the interannual variability of transports and eddy kinetic energy modulation are largely deterministic and explained by the {E}l {N}ino-{S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}), ocean nonlinear processes still explain 10% to 20% of their interannual variance at large scale. {R}egions of strong chaotic variance generally coincide with regions of high mesoscale activity, suggesting that a spontaneous inverse cascade is at work from the mesoscale toward lower frequencies and larger scales. {T}he spatiotemporal features of the low-frequency oceanic chaotic variability are complex but spatially coherent within certain regions. {I}n the {S}ubtropical {C}ountercurrent area, they appear as interannually varying, zonally elongated alternating current structures, while in the {EAC} ({E}ast {A}ustralian {C}urrent) region, they are eddy-shaped. {G}iven this strong imprint of large-scale chaotic oceanic fluctuations, our results question the attribution of interannual variability to the atmospheric forcing in the region from pointwise observations and one-member simulations.},
  keywords = {{PACIFIQUE} ; {PACIFIQUE} {SUD} {OUEST}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{O}cean {S}cience},
  volume = {17},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {487--507},
  ISSN = {1812-0784},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.5194/os-17-487-2021},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010081123},
}