@article{fdi:010080998,
  title = {{I}mproved decadal predictions of {N}orth {A}tlantic subpolar gyre {SST} in {CMIP}6},
  author = {{B}orchert, {L}. {F}. and {M}enary, {M}. {B}. and {S}wingedouw, {D}. and {S}gubin, {G}. and {H}ermanson, {L}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{D}ue to its wide-ranging impacts, predicting decadal variations of sea surface temperature ({SST}) in the subpolar {N}orth {A}tlantic remains a key goal of climate science. {H}ere, we compare the representation of observed subpolar {SST} variations since 1960 in initialized and uninitialized historical simulations from the 5th and 6th phases of the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject ({CMIP}5/6). {I}nitialized decadal hindcasts from {CMIP}6 explain 88% of observed {SST} variance post-1980 in the subpolar gyre at lead years 5-7 (77% in uninitialized simulations) compared to 42% (8%) in {CMIP}5, indicating a more prominent role for forcing in driving observed subpolar {SST} changes than previously thought. {A}nalysis of single-forcing experiments suggests much of this correlation is due to natural forcing, explaining similar to 55% of the observed variance. {T}he amplitude of observed subpolar {SST} variations is underestimated in historical simulations and improved by initialization in {CMIP}6, indicating continued value of initialization for predicting {N}orth {A}tlantic {SST}.},
  keywords = {climate prediction ; {CMIP}5 ; {CMIP}6 ; {N}orth {A}tlantic ; subpolar gyre ; {ATLANTIQUE} {NORD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}eophysical {R}esearch {L}etters},
  volume = {48},
  numero = {3},
  pages = {e2020{GL}091307 [10 p.]},
  ISSN = {0094-8276},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1029/2020gl091307},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010080998},
}