@article{fdi:010080993,
  title = {{P}rojection of upwelling-favorable winds in the {P}eruvian upwelling system under the {RCP}8.5 scenario using a high-resolution regional model},
  author = {{C}hamorro, {A}. and {E}chevin, {V}incent and {D}utheil, {C}. and {T}am, {J}. and {G}utierrez, {D}. and {C}olas, {F}ran{\c{c}}ois},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {P}eruvian upwelling system ({PUS}) is the most productive {E}astern {B}oundary {U}pwelling {S}ystem ({EBUS}) of the world ocean. {C}ontrarily to higher latitude {EBUS}s, there is no consensus yet on the response of upwelling-favorable winds to regional climate change in this region. {G}lobal climate models are not able to reproduce the nearshore surface winds, and only a few downscaling studies have been performed by using relatively coarse-grid atmospheric models forced by idealized climate change scenarios. {I}n the present study, the impact of climate change on the {PUS} upwelling-favorable winds was assessed using a high resolution regional atmospheric model to dynamically downscale the multi-model mean projection of an ensemble of 31 {CMIP}5 global models under the {RCP}8.5 worst-case climate scenario. {W}e performed a 10-year retrospective simulation (1994-2003) forced by {NCEP}2 reanalysis data and a 10-year climate change simulation forced by a climate change forcing (i.e. differences between monthly-mean climatologies for 2080-2100 and 1989-2009) from {CMIP}5 ensemble added to {NCEP}2 data. {W}e found that changes in the mean upwelling-favorable winds are weak (less than 0.2 m s(-1)). {S}easonally, summer winds weakly decrease (by 0-5%) whereas winter winds weakly increase (by 0-10%), thus slightly reinforcing the seasonal cycle. {A} momentum balance shows that the wind changes are mainly driven by the alongshore pressure gradient, except in a local area north of the {P}aracas peninsula, downstream the main upwelling center, where wind increase in winter is driven by the shoreward advection of offshore momentum. {S}ensitivity experiments show that the north-south sea surface temperature gradient plays an important role in the wind response along the north and central coasts, superimposed onto the {S}outh {P}acific {A}nticyclone large-scale forcing. {A} reduction (increase) of the gradient induces a wind weakening (strengthening) up to 15% (25%) off the northern coast during summer. {T}his local mechanism is not well represented in global climate models projections, which underlines the strong need for dynamical downscaling of coastal wind in order to study the impact of climate change on the {P}eruvian upwelling ecosystem.},
  keywords = {{R}egional climate change ; {P}eruvian upwelling system ; {U}pwelling-favorable wind ; {O}cean atmosphere interactions ; {PEROU} ; {PACIFIQUE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {57},
  numero = {1-2},
  pages = {1--16},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-021-05689-w},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010080993},
}