@article{fdi:010079814,
  title = {{F}ine-scale rainfall over {N}ew {C}aledonia under climate change},
  author = {{D}utheil, {C}. and {M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {V}ialard, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me and {P}eltier, {A}. and {B}ador, {M}. and {P}etit, {X}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{G}lobal climate models projections indicate no clear future rainfall changes over the {S}outhwestern {P}acific islands in response to anthropogenic forcing. {Y}et, these models have low (similar to 100-200 km) spatial resolution and suffer from large systematic biases, such as the trademark "double {ITCZ}". {H}ere, 4 km-resolution simulations were used with a nested regional atmospheric model, which resolves the {N}ew {C}aledonian mountainous topography. {T}he resulting present-day rainfall amount, spatial structure, seasonal cycle, and extremes compare much better with observations than at 20 km resolution. {W}e applied projected changes from global climate models under the {RCP}8.5 scenario at the boundaries, following an approach that corrects both their present-day and projected sea surface temperature biases. {U}nlike climate models, our refined projections reveal an 18% decrease in annual mean rainfall over {N}ew {C}aledonia by 2080-2100, especially on the leeward side of the island (up to 30%) and during the hot season (that accounts for similar to 80% of the rainfall decrease). {T}his drying is robust without bias correction, and much stronger than at similar to 20 km resolution. {I}t is mainly driven by circulation changes. {A} weather regime classification further demonstrates that similar to 80% of the hot season drying relates to a strong anti-cyclonic and air subsidence anomalies centred on the north of {NC}, which reduces moisture convergence over the archipelago. {T}he frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also reduced by similar to 20% by 2080-2100. {T}his drastic projected drying would have dramatic impacts on water resources and terrestrial ecosystems, pleading for carefully-planned adaptation policies for {N}ew {C}aledonia.},
  keywords = {{C}limate change ; {D}ownscaling ; {R}egional climate models ; {P}recipitation ; {N}ew caledonia ; {NOUVELLE} {CALEDONIE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {56},
  numero = {1-2},
  pages = {87--108},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-020-05467-0},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010079814},
}