@article{fdi:010079755,
  title = {{A}n iron cycle cascade governs the response of {E}quatorial {P}acific ecosystems to climate change},
  author = {{T}agliabue, {A}. and {B}arrier, {N}icolas and {D}u {P}ontavice, {H}. and {K}wiatkowski, {L}. and {A}umont, {O}livier and {B}opp, {L}. and {C}heung, {W}. {W}. {L}. and {G}ascuel, {D}. and {M}aury, {O}livier},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{E}arth {S}ystem {M}odels project that global climate change will reduce ocean net primary production ({NPP}), upper trophic level biota biomass and potential fisheries catches in the future, especially in the eastern equatorial {P}acific. {H}owever, projections from {E}arth {S}ystem {M}odels are undermined by poorly constrained assumptions regarding the biological cycling of iron, which is the main limiting resource for {NPP} over large parts of the ocean. {I}n this study, we show that the climate change trends in {NPP} and the biomass of upper trophic levels are strongly affected by modifying assumptions associated with phytoplankton iron uptake. {U}sing a suite of model experiments, we find 21st century climate change impacts on regional {NPP} range from -12.3% to +2.4% under a high emissions climate change scenario. {T}his wide range arises from variations in the efficiency of iron retention in the upper ocean in the eastern equatorial {P}acific across different scenarios of biological iron uptake, which affect the strength of regional iron limitation. {T}hose scenarios where nitrogen limitation replaced iron limitation showed the largest projected {NPP} declines, while those where iron limitation was more resilient displayed little future change. {A}ll model scenarios have similar skill in reproducing past inter-annual variations in regional ocean {NPP}, largely due to limited change in the historical period. {U}ltimately, projections of end of century upper trophic level biomass change are altered by 50%-80% across all plausible scenarios. {O}verall, we find that uncertainties in the biological iron cycle cascade through open ocean pelagic ecosystems, from plankton to fish, affecting their evolution under climate change. {T}his highlights additional challenges to developing effective conservation and fisheries management policies under climate change.},
  keywords = {climate change ; iron ; marine ecosystems ; net primary production ; ocean ; {PACIFIQUE} ; {ZONE} {EQUATORIALE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}lobal {C}hange {B}iology},
  volume = {26},
  numero = {11},
  pages = {6168--6179},
  ISSN = {1354-1013},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.1111/gcb.15316},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010079755},
}