@article{fdi:010079693,
  title = {{A}ssessing uncertainties in the regional projections of precipitation in {CORDEX}-{AFRICA}},
  author = {{B}ichet, {A}deline and {D}iedhiou, {A}rona and {H}ingray, {B}. and {E}vin, {G}. and {T}oure, {N}. {E}. and {B}rowne, {K}. {N}. {A}. and {K}ouadio, {K}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{O}ver the past decades, large variations of precipitation were observed in {A}frica, which often led to dramatic consequences for local society and economy. {T}o avoid such disasters in the future, it is crucial to better anticipate the expected changes, especially in the current context of climate change and population growth. {T}o this date, however, projections of precipitation over {A}frica are still associated with very large uncertainties. {T}o better understand how this uncertainty can be reduced, this study uses an advanced {B}ayesian analysis of variance ({ANOVA}) method to characterize, for the first time in the regional climate projections of {CORDEX}-{AFRICA}, the different sources of uncertainty associated with the projections of precipitation over {A}frica. {B}y 2090, the ensemble mean precipitation is projected to increase over the {H}orn of {A}frica from {S}eptember to {M}ay and over the eastern {S}ahel and {G}uinea {C}oast from {J}une to {N}ovember. {I}t is projected to decrease over the northern coast and southern {A}frica all year long, over western {S}ahel from {M}arch to {A}ugust, and over the {S}ahel and {G}uinea {C}oast from {M}arch to {M}ay. {M}ost of these projections however are not robust, i.e., the magnitude of change is smaller than the associated uncertainty. {O}ver time, the relative contribution of internal variability (excluding interannual variability) to total uncertainty is moderate and quickly falls below 10%. {B}y 2090, it is found that over the {H}orn of {A}frica, northern coast, southern {A}frica, and {S}ahel, most of the uncertainty results from a large dispersion across the driving {G}lobal {C}limate {M}odels (in particular {MIROC}, {CSIRO}, {CCC}ma, and {IPSL}), whereas over the tropics and parts of eastern {A}frica, most of the uncertainty results from a large dispersion across {R}egional {C}limate {M}odels (in particular {CLM}com).},
  keywords = {{CORDEX}-{AFRICA} ; {P}recipitation ; {B}ayesian {ANOVA} ; {M}odel uncertainty ; {I}nternal variability ; {AFRIQUE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limatic {C}hange},
  volume = {162},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {583--601},
  ISSN = {0165-0009},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.1007/s10584-020-02833-z},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010079693},
}