@article{fdi:010079667,
  title = {{I}mpact of projected sea surface temperature biases on tropical cyclones projections in the {S}outh {P}acific},
  author = {{D}utheil, {C}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {B}ador, {M}. and {V}ialard, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me and {L}efevre, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me and {J}ourdain, {N}. {C}. and {J}ullien, {S}. and {P}eltier, {A}. and {S}ultan, {B}enjamin and {M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{C}limate model projections generally indicate fewer but more intense tropical cyclones ({TC}s) in response to increasing anthropogenic emissions. {H}owever these simulations suffer from long-standing biases in their {S}ea {S}urface {T}emperature ({SST}). {W}hile most studies investigating future changes in {TC} activity using high-resolution atmospheric models correct for the present-day {SST} bias, they do not consider the reliability of the projected {SST} changes from global climate models. {T}he present study illustrates that future {S}outh {P}acific {TC} activity changes are strongly sensitive to correcting the projected {SST} changes using an emergent constraint method. {T}his additional correction indeed leads to a strong reduction of the cyclogenesis (-55%) over the {S}outh {P}acific basin, while no statistically significant change arises in the uncorrected simulations. {C}yclogenesis indices suggest that this strong reduction in the corrected experiment is caused by stronger vertical wind shear in response to a {S}outh {P}acific {C}onvergence {Z}one equatorward shift. {W}e thus find that uncertainty in the projected {SST} patterns could strongly hamper the reliability of {S}outh {P}acific {TC} projections. {T}he strong sensitivity found in the current study will need to be investigated with other models, observational constraint methods and in other {TC} basins in order to assess the reliability of regional {TC} projections.},
  keywords = {{PACIFIQUE} ; {ZONE} {TROPICALE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{S}cientific {R}eports - {N}ature},
  volume = {10},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {4838 [12 ]},
  ISSN = {2045-2322},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.1038/s41598-020-61570-6},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010079667},
}