@article{fdi:010079524,
  title = {{R}egional versus remote atmosphere-ocean drivers of the rapid projected intensification of the east {A}ustralian current},
  author = {{B}ull, {C}. {Y}. {S}. and {K}iss, {A}. {E}. and {S}en {G}upta, {A}. and {J}ourdain, {N}. {C}. and {A}rgueso, {D}. and {D}i {L}uca, {A}. and {S}{\'e}razin, {G}uillaume},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{L}ike many western boundary currents, the {E}ast {A}ustralian {C}urrent ({EAC}) extension is projected to get stronger and warmer in the future. {T}he {CMIP}5 multimodel mean ({MMM}) projection suggests up to 5 degrees {C} of warming under an {RCP}85 scenario by 2100. {P}revious studies employed {S}verdrup balance to associate a trend in basin wide zonally integrated wind stress curl (resulting from the multidecadal poleward intensification in the westerly winds over the {S}outhern {O}cean) with enhanced transport in the {EAC} extension. {P}ossible regional drivers are yet to be considered. {H}ere we introduce the {NEMO}-{OASIS}-{WRF} coupled regional climate model as a framework to improve our understanding of {CMIP}5 projections. {W}e analyze a hierarchy of simulations in which the regional atmosphere and ocean circulations are allowed to freely evolve subject to boundary conditions that represent present-day and {CMIP}5 {RCP}8.5 climate change anomalies. {E}valuation of the historical simulation shows an {EAC} extension that is stronger than similar ocean-only models and observations. {T}his bias is not explained by a linear response to differences in wind stress. {T}he climate change simulations show that regional atmospheric {CMIP}5 {MMM} anomalies drive 73% of the projected 12 {S}v increase in {EAC} extension transport whereas the remote ocean boundary conditions and regional radiative forcing (greenhouse gases within the domain) play a smaller role. {T}he importance of regional changes in wind stress curl in driving the enhanced {EAC} extension is consistent with linear theory where the {NEMO}-{OASIS}-{WRF} response is closer to linear transport estimates compared to the {CMIP}5 {MMM}.},
  keywords = {{E}ast {A}ustralia {C}urrent ; {CMIP}5 ; projections ; {RCP}85 ; western boundary currents ; ocean circulation ; ocean modeling ; {PACIFIQUE} ; {OCEAN} {INDIEN} ; {AUSTRALIE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {G}eophysical {R}esearch : {O}ceans},
  volume = {125},
  numero = {7},
  pages = {e2019{JC}015889 [18 p.]},
  ISSN = {2169-9275},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.1029/2019jc015889},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010079524},
}