@article{fdi:010079329,
  title = {{P}hysical and biogeochemical impacts of {RCP}8.5 scenario in the {P}eru upwelling system},
  author = {{E}chevin, {V}incent and {G}evaudan, {M}anon and {E}spinoza-{M}orriberon, {D}. and {T}am, {J}. and {A}umont, {O}livier and {G}utierrez, {D}. and {C}olas, {F}ran{\c{c}}ois},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he northern {H}umboldt {C}urrent system ({NHCS} or {P}eru upwelling system) sustains the world's largest small pelagic fishery. {W}hile a nearshore surface cooling has been observed off southern {P}eru in recent decades, there is still considerable debate on the impact of climate change on the regional ecosystem. {T}his calls for more accurate regional climate projections of the 21st century, using adapted tools such as regional eddy-resolving coupled biophysical models. {I}n this study three coarse-grid {E}arth system models ({ESM}s) from the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject {P}hase 5 ({CMIP}5) are selected based on their biogeochemical biases upstream of the {NHCS}, and simulations for the {RCP}8.5 climate scenario are dynamically downscaled at similar to 12 km resolution in the {NHCS}. {T}he impact of regional climate change on temperature, coastal upwelling, nutrient content, deoxygenation, and the planktonic ecosystem is documented. {W}e find that the downscaling approach allows us to correct major physical and biogeochemical biases of the {ESM}s. {A}ll regional simulations display a surface warming regardless of the coastal upwelling trends. {C}ontrasted evolutions of the {NHCS} oxygen minimum zone and enhanced stratification of phytoplankton are found in the coastal region. {W}hereas trends of downscaled physical parameters are consistent with {ESM} trends, downscaled biogeochemical trends differ markedly. {T}hese results suggest that more realism of the {ESM} circulation, nutrient, and dissolved oxygen fields is needed in the eastern equatorial {P}acific to gain robustness in the projection of regional trends in the {NHCS}.},
  keywords = {{PEROU} ; {PACIFIQUE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}iogeosciences},
  volume = {17},
  numero = {12},
  pages = {3317--3341},
  ISSN = {1726-4170},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.5194/bg-17-3317-2020},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010079329},
}