@article{fdi:010077959,
  title = {{W}ater level changes, subsidence, and sea level rise in the {G}anges-{B}rahmaputra-{M}eghna delta},
  author = {{B}ecker, {M}. and {P}apa, {F}abrice and {K}arpytchev, {M}. and {D}elebecque, {C}. and {K}rien, {Y}. and {K}han, {J}. {U}. and {B}allu, {V}. and {D}urand, {F}abien and {L}e {C}ozannet, {G}. and {I}slam, {A}kms and {C}almant, {S}t{\'e}phane and {S}hum, {C}. {K}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}eing one of the most vulnerable regions in the world, the {G}anges-{B}rahmaputra-{M}eghna delta presents a major challenge for climate change adaptation of nearly 200 million inhabitants. {I}t is often considered as a delta mostly exposed to sea-level rise and exacerbated by land subsidence, even if the local vertical land movement rates remain uncertain. {H}ere, we reconstruct the water-level ({WL}) changes over 1968 to 2012, using an unprecedented set of 101 water-level gauges across the delta. {O}ver the last 45 y, {WL} in the delta increased slightly faster (similar to 3 mm/y), than global mean sea level (similar to 2 mm/y). {H}owever, from 2005 onward, we observe an acceleration in the {WL} rise in the west of the delta. {T}he interannual {WL} fluctuations are strongly modulated by {E}l {N}ino {S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}) and {I}ndian {O}cean {D}ipole ({IOD}) variability, with {WL} lower than average by 30 to 60 cm during co-occurrent {E}l {N}ino and positive {IOD} events and higher-than-average {WL}, by 16 to 35 cm, during {L}a {N}ina years. {U}sing satellite altimetry and {WL} reconstructions, we estimate that the maximum expected rates of delta subsidence during 1993 to 2012 range from 1 to 7 mm/y. {B}y 2100, even under a greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenario ({R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athway [{RCP}] 4.5), the subsidence could double the projected sea-level rise, making it reach 85 to 140 cm across the delta. {T}his study provides a robust regional estimate of contemporary relative {WL} changes in the delta induced by continental freshwater dynamics, vertical land motion, and sea-level rise, giving a basis for developing climate mitigation strategies.},
  keywords = {delta ; water level ; sea level ; subsidence ; {B}angladesh ; {BANGLADESH} ; {GANGE} ; {BRAHMAPOUTRE} ; {MEGHNA} {DELTA}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}roceedings of the {N}ational {A}cademy of {S}ciences of the {U}nited {S}tates of {A}merica},
  volume = {117},
  numero = {4},
  pages = {1867--1876},
  ISSN = {0027-8424},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1912921117},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010077959},
}