@article{fdi:010077853, title = {{L}ow fuel cost and rising fish price threaten coral reef wilderness}, author = {{J}anuchowski-{H}artley, {F}. {A}. and {V}igliola, {L}aurent and {M}aire, {E}. and {K}ulbicki, {M}ichel and {M}ouillot, {D}.}, editor = {}, language = {{ENG}}, abstract = {{W}ilderness areas offer unparalleled ecosystem conditions. {H}owever, growing human populations and consumption are among factors that drive encroachment on these areas. {H}ere, we explore the threat of small-scale fisheries to wilderness reefs by developing a framework and modeling fluctuations in fishery range with fuel costs and fish prices. {W}e modeled biomass of four fishery groups across the {N}ew {C}aledonian archipelago, and used fish and fuel prices from 2005 to 2020 to estimate the extent of exploited reefs across three fishing scenarios. {F}rom 2012 to 2018, maximum profitable range increased from 15 to over 30 hr from the capital city, expanding to reefs previously uneconomic to fish, including a {UNESCO} heritage site. {B}y 2020, over half of {N}ew {C}aledonian (similar to 17% global) wilderness reefs will become profitable to fish. {O}ur results demonstrate that remoteness from humans should not be considered protection for wilderness coral reefs in the context of rising fish prices.}, keywords = {coral reef conservation ; fisheries management ; reef accessibility ; small-scale fisheries ; {S}outh {P}acific ; {NOUVELLE} {CALEDONIE} ; {PACIFIQUE}}, booktitle = {}, journal = {{C}onservation {L}etters}, numero = {}, pages = {e12706 [9 ]}, ISSN = {1755-263{X}}, year = {2020}, DOI = {10.1111/conl.12706}, URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010077853}, }