@article{fdi:010077067,
  title = {{A} bootstrap-based differential split-sample test to assess the transferability of conceptual rainfall-runoff models under past and future climate variability},
  author = {{D}akhlaoui, {H}. and {R}uelland, {D}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}his study proposes a general differential split-sample test ({GDSST}) based on an oriented bootstrap to assess the transferability of conceptual rainfall-runoff models to climatically contrasting periods. {C}ompared to existing benchmark techniques, the {GDSST} allows a larger number of climatically contrasted discontinuous periods to be sampled, and is computationally more effective than the basic bootstrap to identify the most contrasted periods. {W}hen applied to three hydrological models ({GR}4{J}, {HBV} and {IHACRES}) in five catchments in northern {T}unisia, the {GDSST} provided clear limits of the transferability of the models under changing precipitation ({P}) and temperature ({T}) conditions towards drier and hotter conditions. {A}ccording to the criteria and thresholds retained, approximate limits of model transferability are drawn. {T}he models are roughly transferable for relative changes in precipitation {D}elta {P} < (0.08 {D}elta {T}-0.18) with {D}elta {P} is an element of [-30%, +80%), and changes in temperature {D}elta {T} is an element of [-2 degrees {C}, + 2 degrees {C}). {T}hese transferability limits suggest selecting a past sub-period as close as possible to the future climate to identify calibration parameters, which can be used for hydrological projections. {T}he limits of transferability were then compared to climate projections by eight high-resolution {R}egional {C}limate {M}odel ({RCM}) simulations resulting from the {EURO}-{CORDEX} initiative. {T}he {RCM}s' precipitation and temperature simulations of the historical period 1970-2000 were first assessed to select the most realistic ones for future projections. {A} delta-change monthly correction was used to perturb the observed climate series according to climate simulations under two {R}adiative {C}oncentration {P}athway ({RCP}) scenarios ({RCP}4.5 and {RCP}8.5) for one medium-term horizon (2040-2070) and one long-term horizon (2070-2100). {T}he effects of the selected past calibration period on the hydrological projections were then analysed. {T}he {RCP} 8.5 climate projections fall outside the limits of transferability of all rainfall-runoff models tested. {M}odels calibrated on the whole observed period were found to underestimate the impacts of climate change on runoff by 5%-20% in comparison with models calibrated on sub-periods with mean annual {P} and {T} closer to projected climate conditions.},
  keywords = {{R}ainfall-runoff modelling ; {S}plit-sample tests ; {P}arameter ; transferability ; {C}limate scenarios ; {CORDEX} ; {T}unisia ; {TUNISIE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {H}ydrology},
  volume = {575},
  numero = {},
  pages = {470--486},
  ISSN = {0022-1694},
  year = {2019},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.056},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010077067},
}