@article{fdi:010077008,
  title = {{E}vidence of crop production losses in {W}est {A}frica due to historical global warming in two crop models},
  author = {{S}ultan, {B}enjamin and {D}efrance, {D}imitri and {I}izmui, {T}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}chieving food security goals in {W}est {A}frica will depend on the capacity of the agricultural sector to feed the rapidly growing population and to moderate the adverse impacts of climate change. {I}ndeed, a number of studies anticipate a reduction of the crop yield of the main staple food crops in the region in the coming decades due to global warming. {H}ere, we found that crop production might have already been affected by climate change, with significant yield losses estimated in the historical past. {W}e used a large ensemble of historical climate simulations derived from an atmospheric general circulation model and two process-based crop models, {SARRA}-{H} and {CYGMA}, to evaluate the effects of historical climate change on crop production in {W}est {A}frica. {W}e generated two ensembles of 100 historical simulations of yields of sorghum and millet corresponding to two climate conditions for each crop model. {O}ne ensemble is based on a realistic simulation of the actual climate, while the other is based on a climate simulation that does not account for human influences on climate systems (that is, the non-warming counterfactual climate condition). {W}e found that the last simulated decade, 2000-2009, is approximately 1 degrees {C} warmer in {W}est {A}frica in the ensemble accounting for human influences on climate, with more frequent heat and rainfall extremes. {T}hese altered climate conditions have led to regional average yield reductions of 10-20% for millet and 5-15% for sorghum in the two crop models. {W}e found that the average annual production losses across {W}est {A}frica in 2000-2009 associated with historical climate change, relative to a non-warming counterfactual condition (that is, pre-industrial climate), accounted for 2.33-4.02 billion {USD} for millet and 0.73-2.17 billion {USD} for sorghum. {T}he estimates of production losses presented here can be a basis for the loss and damage associated with climate change to date and useful in estimating the costs of the adaptation of crop production systems in the region.},
  keywords = {{AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{S}cientific {R}eports - {N}ature},
  volume = {9},
  numero = {},
  pages = {art. 12834 [15 ]},
  ISSN = {2045-2322},
  year = {2019},
  DOI = {10.1038/s41598-019-49167-0},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010077008},
}