@article{fdi:010076654,
  title = {{I}mpact of surface temperature biases on climate change projections of the {S}outh {P}acific {C}onvergence {Z}one},
  author = {{D}utheil, {C}. and {B}ador, {M}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {L}efevre, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me and {J}ourdain, {N}. {C}. and {V}ialard, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me and {J}ullien, {S}. and {P}eltier, {A}. and {M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {S}outh {P}acific {C}onvergence {Z}one ({SPCZ}) is poorly represented in global coupled simulations from the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject {P}hase 5 ({CMIP}5), with trademark biases such as the tendency to form a "double {I}ntertropical convergence zone" and an equatorial cold tongue that extends too far westward. {S}uch biases limit our confidence in projections of the future climate change for this region. {I}n this study, we use a downscaling strategy based on a regional atmospheric general circulation model that accurately captures the {SPCZ} present-day climatology and interannual variability. {M}ore specifically, we investigate the sensitivity of the projected rainfall response to either just correcting present-day {CMIP}5 {S}ea {S}urface {T}emperature ({SST}) biases or correcting projected {SST} changes using an emergent constraint approach. {W}hile the equatorial western {P}acific projected rainfall increase is robust in our experiments and {CMIP}5, correcting the projected {CMIP}5 {SST} changes yields a considerably larger reduction (similar to 25%) than in {CMIP}5 simulations (similar to + 3%) in the southwestern {P}acific. {I}ndeed, correcting the projected {CMIP}5 warming pattern yields stronger projected {SST} gradients, and more humidity convergence reduction under the {SPCZ}. {F}inally, our bias-corrected set of experiments yields an increase in equatorial rainfall and {SPCZ} variability in the future, but does not support the future increase in the frequency of zonal {SPCZ} events simulated by {CMIP}5 models. {T}his study hence suggests that atmospheric downscaling studies should not only correct {CMIP}5 present-day {SST} biases but also projected {SST} changes to improve the reliability of their projections. {A}dditional simulations with different physical parameterizations yield robust results.},
  keywords = {{R}egional climate models ; {S}outh {P}acific {C}onvergence {Z}one ; {P}recipitation ; {S}ea {S}urface {T}emperature ; {PACIFIQUE} {SUD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {53},
  numero = {5-6},
  pages = {3197--3219},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2019},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-019-04692-6},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010076654},
}