@article{fdi:010076498,
  title = {{A} participatory scenario method to explore the future of marine social-ecological systems},
  author = {{P}lanque, {B}. and {M}ullon, {C}hristian and {A}rneberg, {P}. and {E}ide, {A}. and {F}romentin, {J}. {M}. and {H}eymans, {J}. {J}. and {H}oel, {A}. {H}. and {N}iiranen, {S}. and {O}ttersen, {G}. and {S}ando, {A}. {B}. and {S}ommerkorn, {M}. and {T}hebaud, {O}. and {T}horvik, {T}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}nticipating future changes in marine social-ecological systems ({MSES}) several decades into the future is essential in the context of accelerating global change. {T}his is challenging in situations where actors do not share common understandings, practices, or visions about the future. {W}e introduce a dedicated scenario method for the development of {MSES} scenarios in a participatory context. {T}he objective is to allow different actors to jointly develop scenarios which contain their multiple visions of the future. {T}he method starts from four perspectives: "fisheries management," "ecosystem," "ocean climate," and "global context and governance" for which current status and recent trends are summarized. {C}ontrasted scenarios about possible futures are elaborated for each of the four single perspectives before being integrated into multiple-perspective scenarios. {S}elected scenarios are then developed into storylines. {F}ocusing on individual perspectives until near the end allows actors with diverse cultures, interests and horizons to confront their own notions of the future. {W}e illustrate the method with the exploration of the futures of the {B}arents {S}ea {MSES} by 2050. {W}e emphasize the following lessons learned: first, many actors are not familiar with scenario building and attention must be paid to explaining the purpose, methodology, and benefits of scenarios exercises. {S}econd, although the {B}arents {S}ea {MSES} is relatively well understood, uncertainties about its future are significant. {T}hird, it is important to focus on unlikely events. {F}ourth, all perspectives should be treated equally. {F}ifth, as {MSES} are continuously changing, we can only be prepared for future changes if we collectively keep preparing.},
  keywords = {{B}arents {S}ea ; future studies ; multiple perspectives ; participatory ; fisheries management ; storylines ; uncertainty ; {BARENTS} {MER}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{F}ish and {F}isheries},
  volume = {20},
  numero = {3},
  pages = {434--451},
  ISSN = {1467-2960},
  year = {2019},
  DOI = {10.1111/faf.12356},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010076498},
}