@article{fdi:010076166,
  title = {{C}limate change in {A}frica : costs of mitigating heat stress},
  author = {{P}arkes, {B}. and {C}ronin, {J}. and {D}essens, {O}. and {S}ultan, {B}enjamin},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{W}e applied two metrics, apparent temperature and humidex, to calculate heat stress in both present and future climates. {W}e use an ensemble of {CORDEX}-{A}frica simulations to estimate heat stress during a baseline period and at two specific warming levels, 2 and 4 degrees {C} above pre-industrial. {T}he increase in temperatures and changes to the precipitation distribution under climate change are projected to increase the intensity of heat stress events in {S}ahelian {A}frica and introduce new heat stress events in {N}orthern and {C}entral {A}frica. {A}s the intensity of heat stress increases, it is expected that the use of energy-intensive cooling will increase. {T}he energy system, therefore, will need to be able to supply more energy to power fans or air conditioning units. {T}he cooling demand to turn a heat stress event into a non-heat stress event is computed. {T}his value is then weighted by the population to find the total cooling required to prevent heat stress across the continent. {C}ountry-level results indicate that the greatest increases in cooling demand will occur in countries with densely populated regions, most notably {N}igeria. {S}upplying this additional cooling demand will present the greatest challenge to less developed countries like {S}omalia. {W}e find the least-cost future energy system that meets the projected increase in demand and derive the increase in energy system costs with the {TIAM}-{UCL} model. {T}he total increase in energy costs to prevent heat stress is found to be $51bn by 2035 and $487bn by 2076.},
  keywords = {{AFRIQUE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limatic {C}hange},
  volume = {154},
  numero = {3-4},
  pages = {461--476},
  ISSN = {0165-0009},
  year = {2019},
  DOI = {10.1007/s10584-019-02405-w},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010076166},
}