%0 Journal Article
%9 ACL : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture répertoriées par l'AERES
%A Sirakov, N.
%A Fontez, B.
%A Libourel, T.
%A Santos, A. dos
%A Mitja, Danielle
%A Loisel, P.
%T A stage-structured hierarchical Bayes model for the babassu palm tree population dynamics : estimated from anthropogenic open area data sets
%D 2019
%L fdi:010075669
%G ENG
%J Ecological Modelling
%@ 0304-3800
%K Mathematical modelling ; Bayesian statistics ; Population dynamics ; Babassu palm tree
%K BRESIL ; AMAZONIE
%K PARA
%M ISI:000466622100002
%P 14-26
%R 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.02.016
%U https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010075669
%> https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2019/05/010075669.pdf
%V 400
%W Horizon (IRD)
%X The babassu palm tree (Attalea speciosa Mart. ex Spreng.) is an endemic species of Amazon forests, and has social and economical impact/utility. Deforestation highlights this palm tree in anthropogenic open areas (pastures and cultivated fields). Simultaneously, knowledge concerning the sustainable functioning of the species within these manmade environments is sorely lacking: its life cycle is not well known, and its population dynamics remains unstudied. In this study, our objective was to generate a model of the population dynamics of the babassu palm tree, validated by in situ analysis, to understand how babassu, a forest species, adapts to pastureland and, under certain conditions, becomes invasive. We propose a random matrix model with aggregated variables based on the biological stages of the species as the input. The probabilities of the between-stage transition matrix were modelled using a Dirichlet-multinomial model with a hierarchy taking geographical organization, i.e. transect level, into account. The integration of prior information was formulated through a Bayesian approach. This Bayesian hierarchical matrix model enabled us to demonstrate a bottleneck in the population dynamics and a high year-dependent mortality rate at an early stage.
%$ 082 ; 076 ; 020