@article{fdi:010075466,
  title = {{P}redictability of the {E}uropean heat and cold waves},
  author = {{L}avaysse, {C}hristophe and {N}aumann, {G}. and {A}lfieri, {L}. and {S}alamon, {P}. and {V}ogt, {J}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{H}eat and cold waves may have considerable human and economic impacts in {E}urope. {R}ecent events, like the heat waves observed in {F}rance in 2003 and {R}ussia in 2010, illustrated the major consequences to be expected. {R}eliable {E}arly {W}arning {S}ystems for extreme temperatures would, therefore, be of high value for decision makers. {H}owever, they require a clear definition and robust forecasts of these events. {T}his study analyzes the predictability of heat and cold waves over {E}urope, defined as at least three consecutive days of {T}min and {T}max above the quantile {Q}90 (under {Q}10), using the extended ensemble system of {ECMWF}. {T}he results show significant predictability for events within a 2-week lead time, but with a strong decrease of the predictability during the first week of forecasts (from 80 to 40% of observed events correctly forecasted). {T}he scores show a higher predictive skill for the cold waves (in winter) than for the heat waves (in summer). {T}he uncertainties and the sensitivities of the predictability are discussed on the basis of tests conducted with different spatial and temporal resolutions. {R}esults demonstrate the negligible effect of the temporal resolution (very few errors due to bad timing of the forecasts), and a better predictability of large-scale events. {T}he onset and the end of the waves are slightly less predictable with an average of about 35% (30%) of observed heat (cold) waves onsets or ends correctly forecasted with a 5-day lead time. {F}inally, the forecasted intensities show a correlation of about 0.65 with those observed, revealing the challenge to predict this important characteristic.},
  keywords = {{P}redictability ; {H}eat waves ; {C}old waves ; {E}nsemble forecasts ; {V}alidation ; {EUROPE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {52},
  numero = {3-4},
  pages = {2481--2495},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2019},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-018-4273-5},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010075466},
}