@article{fdi:010074914,
  title = {{T}wenty-first-century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins},
  author = {{B}ryndum-{B}uchholz, {A}. and {T}ittensor, {D}. {P}. and {B}lanchard, {J}. {L}. and {C}heung, {W}. {W}. {L}. and {C}oll, {M}arta and {G}albraith, {E}. {D}. and {J}ennings, {S}. and {M}aury, {O}livier and {L}otze, {H}. {K}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{C}limate change effects on marine ecosystems include impacts on primary production, ocean temperature, species distributions, and abundance at local to global scales. {T}hese changes will significantly alter marine ecosystem structure and function with associated socio-economic impacts on ecosystem services, marine fisheries, and fishery-dependent societies. {Y}et how these changes may play out among ocean basins over the 21st century remains unclear, with most projections coming from single ecosystem models that do not adequately capture the range of model uncertainty. {W}e address this by using six marine ecosystem models within the {F}isheries and {M}arine {E}cosystem {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject ({F}ish-{MIP}) to analyze responses of marine animal biomass in all major ocean basins to contrasting climate change scenarios. {U}nder a high emissions scenario ({RCP}8.5), total marine animal biomass declined by an ensemble mean of 15%-30% (+/- 12%-17%) in the {N}orth and {S}outh {A}tlantic and {P}acific, and the {I}ndian {O}cean by 2100, whereas polar ocean basins experienced a 20%-80% (+/- 35%-200%) increase. {U}ncertainty and model disagreement were greatest in the {A}rctic and smallest in the {S}outh {P}acific {O}cean. {P}rojected changes were reduced under a low ({RCP}2.6) emissions scenario. {U}nder {RCP}2.6 and {RCP}8.5, biomass projections were highly correlated with changes in net primary production and negatively correlated with projected sea surface temperature increases across all ocean basins except the polar oceans. {E}cosystem structure was projected to shift as animal biomass concentrated in different size-classes across ocean basins and emissions scenarios. {W}e highlight that climate change mitigation measures could moderate the impacts on marine animal biomass by reducing biomass declines in the {P}acific, {A}tlantic, and {I}ndian {O}cean basins. {T}he range of individual model projections emphasizes the importance of using an ensemble approach in assessing uncertainty of future change.},
  keywords = {climate change ; ensemble modeling ; future projection ; marine animal ; biomass ; marine ecosystem models ; model intercomparison ; ocean basins ; uncertainty ; {MONDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}lobal {C}hange {B}iology},
  volume = {25},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {459--472},
  ISSN = {1354-1013},
  year = {2019},
  DOI = {10.1111/gcb.14512},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010074914},
}