@article{fdi:010074797,
  title = {{I}ncreased variability of eastern {P}acific {E}l {N}ino under greenhouse warming},
  author = {{C}ai, {W}. {J}. and {W}ang, {G}. {J}. and {D}ewitte, {B}oris and {W}u, {L}. {X}. and {S}antoso, {A}. and {T}akahashi, {K}. and {Y}ang, {Y}. and {C}arreric, {A}. and {M}c{P}haden, {M}. {J}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {E}l {N}ino-{S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}) is the dominant and most consequential climate variation on {E}arth, and is characterized by warming of equatorial {P}acific sea surface temperatures ({SST}s) during the {E}l {N}ino phase and cooling during the {L}a {N}ina phase. {ENSO} events tend to have a centre-corresponding to the location of the maximum {SST} anomaly-in either the central equatorial {P}acific (5 degrees {S}-5 degrees {N}, 160 degrees {E}-150 degrees {W}) or the eastern equatorial {P}acific (5 degrees {S}-5 degrees {N}, 150 degrees-90 degrees {W}); these two distinct types of {ENSO} event are referred to as the {CP}-{ENSO} and {EP}-{ENSO} regimes, respectively. {H}ow the {ENSO} may change under future greenhouse warming is unknown, owing to a lack of inter-model agreement over the response of {SST}s in the eastern equatorial {P}acific to such warming. {H}ere we find a robust increase in future {EP}-{ENSO} {SST} variability among {CMIP}5 climate models that simulate the two distinct {ENSO} regimes. {W}e show that the {EP}-{ENSO} {SST} anomaly pattern and its centre differ greatly from one model to another, and therefore cannot be well represented by a single {SST} 'index' at the observed centre. {H}owever, although the locations of the anomaly centres differ in each model, we find a robust increase in {SST} variability at each anomaly centre across the majority of models considered. {T}his increase in variability is largely due to greenhouse-warming-induced intensification of upper-ocean stratification in the equatorial {P}acific, which enhances ocean-atmosphere coupling. {A}n increase in {SST} variance implies an increase in the number of 'strong' {EP}-{E}l {N}ino events (corresponding to large {SST} anomalies) and associated extreme weather events.},
  keywords = {{PACIFIQUE} {EST}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature},
  volume = {564},
  numero = {7735},
  pages = {201--206 + 12 p.},
  ISSN = {0028-0836},
  year = {2018},
  DOI = {10.1038/s41586-018-0776-9},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010074797},
}