@article{fdi:010074508,
  title = {{F}uture evolution of extreme precipitation in the {M}editerranean},
  author = {{T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {S}omot, {S}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{M}editerranean basins can be impacted by severe floods caused by extreme rainfall, and there is a growing awareness about the possible increase in these heavy rainfall events due to climate change. {I}n this study, the climate change impacts on extreme daily precipitation in 102 catchments covering the whole {M}editerranean basin are investigated using nonstationary extreme value model applied to annual maximum precipitation in an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model ({RCM}) simulations from the {E}uro-{CORDEX} experiment. {R}esults indicate contrasted trends, with significant increasing trends in {N}orthern catchments and conversely decreasing trends in {S}outhern catchments. {F}or most cases, the time of signal emergence for these trends is before the year 2000. {T}he same spatial pattern is obtained under the two climate scenarios considered ({RCP}4.5 and {RCP}8.5) and in most {RCM} simulations, suggesting a robust climate change signal. {T}he strongest multi-model agreement concerns the positive trends, which can exceed +20% by the end of the twenty-first century in some simulations, impacting {S}outh {F}rance, {N}orth {I}taly, and the {B}alkans. {F}or these areas, society-relevant strong impacts of such {M}editerranean extreme precipitation changes could be expected in particular concerning flood-related damages.},
  keywords = {{FRANCE} ; {ITALIE} ; {BALKANS} ; {ZONE} {MEDITERRANEENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limatic {C}hange},
  volume = {151},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {289--302},
  ISSN = {0165-0009},
  year = {2018},
  DOI = {10.1007/s10584-018-2300-5},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010074508},
}