@article{fdi:010074010,
  title = {{U}ncertainty in establishing forest reference levels and predicting future forest-based carbon stocks for {REDD}},
  author = {{M}ertz, {O}. and {G}rogan, {K}. and {P}flugmacher, {D}. and {L}estrelin, {G}. and {C}astella, {J}ean-{C}hristophe and {V}ongyisouk, {T}. and {H}ett, {C}. and {F}ensholt, {R}. and {S}un, {Z}. {L}. and {B}erry, {N}. and {M}uller, {D}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{F}orest reference levels ({FRL}s) provide a benchmark for assessing reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation ({REDD}+), and they are central to demonstrate additionality of {REDD}+. {A}ttaining realistic {FRL}s, however, is challenging, especially in complex mosaic landscapes. {W}e established {FRL}s in northern {L}aos for different reference periods and tested them against actual carbon stock changes. {A}nnual time series of {L}andsat satellite images were used to capture the subtle changes in carbon stocks in complex landscapes characterized by shifting cultivation. {W}e found that {FRL}s differ considerably depending on the reference period chosen. {A}brupt land-use changes occurred when hybrid maize replaced traditional shifting cultivation and forests, and this invalidated carbon stock trends that would have been predicted had the {FRL} been projected into the future. {W}e conclude that demonstrating additionality of {REDD}+ in fast developing areas is difficult and that payment systems rewarding potential emission reductions against hypothetical extrapolation of {FRL}s are unlikely to be a cost-effective strategy.},
  keywords = {{C}arbon emissions ; {C}limate change ; {D}eforestation ; {F}orest reference levels ; {L}and use change ; {REDD} ; {LAOS}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {L}and {U}se {S}cience},
  volume = {13},
  numero = {1-2},
  pages = {1--15},
  ISSN = {1747-423{X}},
  year = {2018},
  DOI = {10.1080/1747423x.2017.1410242},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010074010},
}