@article{fdi:010073780,
  title = {{A}bsence of detectable precursory deformation and velocity variation before the large dome collapse of july 2015 at volcan de {C}olima, {M}exico},
  author = {{L}esage, {P}. and {C}arrara, {A}. and {P}inel, {V}irginie and {A}rambula-{M}endoza, {R}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{I}mproving the ability to foresee volcanic eruption is one of the main objectives of volcanologists. {F}or this purpose, it is essential to better detect eruption forerunners and to understand their relationship with eruptive processes. {T}he evaluation of the performance of the forecasting methods partly relies on the estimation of the frequency of occurrence of the various precursory phenomena. {P}ossible lack of precursor before some events must also be carefully documented and analyzed. {I}n this study, we check for the existence of detectable precursors before the large dome collapse event of {V}olcan de {C}olima, which occurred in {J}uly 2015, leading to the emplacement of more than 10 km long {P}yroclastics {D}ensity {C}urrents and the opening of a large breach in the crater. {B}ased on volumes of emitted magma, the 2015 eruption is the largest event recorded at {V}olcan de {C}olima since the 1913 {P}linian eruption. {S}urface displacements in the summit cone area are quantified over the period {N}ovember 2014-{J}une 2015 based on {S}ynthetic {A}perture {R}adar ({SAR}) images acquired by {S}entinel-1 satellite. {V}elocity variations are investigated by coda wave interferometry. {D}aily cross-correlation functions of seismic noise recorded at 5 broadband stations are calculated for the period {J}anuary 2013-{A}pril 2017 and apparent velocity variations are obtained by applying the stretching method. {W}e show that no significant surface deformation can be measured by the {SAR} images over an area reaching 5 km from the summit, such that the volume of emitted magma cannot have been accommodated elastically in the 6 months preceding the eruption at a depth shallower than 5 km. {T}he time series of apparent velocity variations display fluctuations of the order of 0.05% with characteristic time shorter than 1 month. {S}harp velocity decreases of up to 0.2% are associated with strong regional tectonic earthquakes. {H}owever, no velocity change with amplitude larger than the noise level is observed before the {J}uly 2015 eruption. {T}he behavior of the surface deformation and the velocity variation is consistent with the relative quiescence of the volcano-tectonic and low-frequency seismic activities observed before this large eruptive event. {T}his situation could be frequent in case of so called open systems, where additional magma input is directly transferred to the surface, producing dome modification, without significant pressurization of the plumbing system.},
  keywords = {eruption precursor ; dome collapse ; deformation ; {I}n{SAR} ; seismic velocity ; variation ; coda wave interferometry ; {V}olcan de {C}olima ; eruption ; forecasting ; {MEXIQUE} ; {DE} {COLIMA} {VOLCAN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{F}rontiers in {E}arth {S}cience},
  volume = {6},
  numero = {},
  pages = {art. 93 [12 p.]},
  ISSN = {2296-6463},
  year = {2018},
  DOI = {10.3389/feart.2018.00093},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010073780},
}