@article{fdi:010073636,
  title = {{S}patio-temporal patterns of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype {H}5{N}8 spread, {F}rance, 2016 to 2017},
  author = {{G}uinat, {C}. and {N}icolas, {G}. and {V}ergne, {T}imoth{\'e}e and {B}ronner, {A}. and {D}urand, {B}. and {C}ourcoul, {A}. and {G}ilbert, {M}. and {G}uerin, {J}. {L}. and {P}aul, {M}. {C}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{I}ntroduction: {F}rance is one of {E}urope's foremost poultry producers and the world's fifth largest producer of poultry meat. {I}n {N}ovember 2016, highly pathogenic avian influenza ({HPAI}) virus subtype {H}5{N}8 emerged in poultry in the country. {A}s of 23 {M}arch 2017, a total of 484 confirmed outbreaks were reported, with consequences on animal health and socio-economic impacts for producers. {M}ethods: {W}e examined the spatio-temporal distribution of outbreaks that occurred in {F}rance between {N}ovember 2016 and {M}arch 2017, using the space-time {K}-function and space-time permutation model of the scan statistic test. {R}esults: {M}ost outbreaks affected duck flocks in south-west {F}rance. {A} significant space-time interaction of outbreaks was present at the beginning of the epidemic within a window of 8 km and 13 days. {T}his interaction disappeared towards the epidemic end. {F}ive spatio-temporal outbreak clusters were identified in the main poultry producing areas, moving sequentially from east to west. {T}he average spread rate of the epidemic front wave was estimated to be 5.5 km/week. {I}t increased from {F}ebruary 2017 and was negatively associated with the duck holding density. {C}onclusion: {HPAI}-{H}5{N}8 infections varied over time and space in {F}rance. {I}ntense transmission events occurred at the early stages of the epidemic, followed by long-range jumps in the disease spread towards its end. {F}indings support strict control strategies in poultry production as well as the maintenance of high biosecurity standards for poultry holdings. {F}actors and mechanisms driving {HPAI} spread need to be further investigated.},
  keywords = {{FRANCE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}urosurveillance},
  volume = {23},
  numero = {26},
  pages = {2--11},
  ISSN = {1560-7917},
  year = {2018},
  DOI = {10.2807/1560-7917.es.2018.23.26.1700791},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010073636},
}