@article{fdi:010073177,
  title = {{L}oss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level},
  author = {{P}erry, {C}. {T}. and {A}lvarez-{F}ilip, {L}. and {G}raham, {N}. {A}. {J}. and {M}umby, {P}. {J}. and {W}ilson, {S}. {K}. and {K}ench, {P}. {S}. and {M}anzello, {D}. {P}. and {M}organ, {K}. {M}. and {S}langen, {A}. {B}. {A}. and {T}homson, {D}. {P}. and {J}anuchowski-{H}artley, {F}raser and {S}mithers, {S}. {G}. and {S}teneck, {R}. {S}. and {C}arlton, {R}. and {E}dinger, {E}. {N}. and {E}nochs, {I}. {C}. and {E}strada-{S}aldivar, {N}. and {H}aywood, {M}. {D}. {E}. and {K}olodziej, {G}. and {M}urphy, {G}. {N}. and {P}erez-{C}ervantes, {E}. and {S}uchley, {A}. and {V}alentino, {L}. and {B}oenish, {R}. and {W}ilson, {M}. and {M}acdonald, {C}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{S}ea-level rise ({SLR}) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. {H}ere we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western {A}tlantic and {I}ndian {O}cean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of {SLR} under different {R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athway ({RCP}) scenarios. {A}lthough many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent {SLR} trends, few will have the capacity to track {SLR} projections under {RCP}4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under {RCP}8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. {C}oral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track {SLR}, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. {U}rgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.},
  keywords = {{OCEAN} {INDIEN} ; {ATLANTIQUE} {OUEST} ; {ZONE} {TROPICALE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{N}ature},
  volume = {558},
  numero = {7710},
  pages = {396--400 +11 p.},
  ISSN = {0028-0836},
  year = {2018},
  DOI = {10.1038/s41586-018-0194-z},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010073177},
}