Publications des scientifiques de l'IRD

Diedhiou Arona, Bichet Adeline, Wartenburger R., Seneviratne S. I., Rowell D. P., Sylla M. B., Diallo I., Todzo S., Toure N. E., Camara M., Ngatchah B. N., Kane N. A., Tall L., Affholder F. (2018). Changes in climate extremes over West and Central Africa at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (6), p. art. 065020 [ p.]. ISSN 1748-9326.

Titre du document
Changes in climate extremes over West and Central Africa at 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming
Année de publication
2018
Type de document
Article référencé dans le Web of Science WOS:000435851500002
Auteurs
Diedhiou Arona, Bichet Adeline, Wartenburger R., Seneviratne S. I., Rowell D. P., Sylla M. B., Diallo I., Todzo S., Toure N. E., Camara M., Ngatchah B. N., Kane N. A., Tall L., Affholder F.
Source
Environmental Research Letters, 2018, 13 (6), p. art. 065020 [ p.] ISSN 1748-9326
In this study, we investigate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over West and Central Africa (hereafter, WAF domain) as a function of global mean temperature with a focus on the implications of global warming of 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C according the Paris Agreement. We applied a scaling approach to capture changes in climate extremes with increase in global mean temperature in several subregions within the WAF domain: Western Sahel, Central Sahel, Eastern Sahel, Guinea Coast and Central Africa including Congo Basin. While there are several uncertainties and large ensemble spread in the projections of temperature and precipitation indices, most models show high-impact changes in climate extremes at subregional scale. At these smaller scales, temperature increases within the WAF domain are projected to be higher than the global mean temperature increase (at 1.5 degrees C and at 2 degrees C) and heat waves are expected to be more frequent and of longer duration. The most intense warming is observed over the drier regions of the Sahel, in the central Sahel and particularly in the eastern Sahel, where the precipitation and the soil moisture anomalies have the highest probability of projected increase at a global warming of 1.5 degrees C. Over the wetter regions of the Guinea Coast and Central Africa, models project a weak change in total precipitation and a decrease of the length of wet spells, while these two regions have the highest increase of heavy rainfall in the WAF domain at a global warming of 1.5 degrees C. Western Sahel is projected by 80% of the models to experience the strongest drying with a significant increase in the length of dry spells and a decrease in the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. This study suggests that the 'dry gets drier, wet gets wetter' paradigm is not valid within the WAF domain.
Plan de classement
Sciences du milieu [021]
Description Géographique
AFRIQUE DE L'OUEST ; AFRIQUE CENTRALE ; SAHEL ; ZONE GUINEENNE ; CONGO BASSIN
Localisation
Fonds IRD [F B010073169]
Identifiant IRD
fdi:010073169
Contact