@article{fdi:010073094,
  title = {{H}ow can onchocerciasis elimination in {A}frica be accelerated ? {M}odeling the impact of increased ivermectin treatment frequency and complementary vector control},
  author = {{V}erver, {S}. and {W}alker, {M}. and {K}im, {Y}. {E}. and {F}obi, {G}. and {T}ekle, {A}. {H}. and {Z}oure, {H}. {G}. {M}. and {W}anji, {S}. and {B}oakye, {D}. {A}. and {K}uesel, {A}. {C}. and de {V}las, {S}. {J}. and {B}oussinesq, {M}ichel and {B}asanez, {M}. {G}. and {S}tolk, {W}. {A}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground. {G}reat strides have been made toward onchocerciasis elimination by mass drug administration ({MDA}) of ivermectin. {F}ocusing on {MDA}-eligible areas, we investigated where the elimination goal can be achieved by 2025 by continuation of current practice (annual {MDA} with ivermectin) and where intensification or additional vector control is required. {W}e did not consider areas hypoendemic for onchocerciasis with loiasis coendemicity where {MDA} is contraindicated. {M}ethods. {W}e used 2 previously published mathematical models, {ONCHOSIM} and {EPIONCHO}, to simulate future trends in microfilarial prevalence for 80 different settings (defined by precontrol endemicity and past {MDA} frequency and coverage) under different future treatment scenarios (annual, biannual, or quarterly {MDA} with different treatment coverage through 2025, with or without vector control strategies), assessing for each strategy whether it eventually leads to elimination. {R}esults. {A}reas with 40%-50% precontrol microfilarial prevalence and >= 10 years of annual {MDA} may achieve elimination with a further 7 years of annual {MDA}, if not achieved already, according to both models. {F}or most areas with 70%-80% precontrol prevalence, {ONCHOSIM} predicts that either annual or biannual {MDA} is sufficient to achieve elimination by 2025, whereas {EPIONCHO} predicts that elimination will not be achieved even with complementary vector control. {C}onclusions. {W}hether elimination will be reached by 2025 depends on precontrol endemicity, control history, and strategies chosen from now until 2025. {B}iannual or quarterly {MDA} will accelerate progress toward elimination but cannot guarantee it by 2025 in high-endemicity areas. {L}ong-term concomitant {MDA} and vector control for high-endemicity areas might be useful.},
  keywords = {onchocerciasis ; modeling ; mass drug administration ; ivermectin ; elimination ; {AFRIQUE} {SUBSAHARIENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}linical {I}nfectious {D}iseases},
  volume = {66},
  numero = {4},
  pages = {{S}267--{S}274},
  ISSN = {1058-4838},
  year = {2018},
  DOI = {10.1093/cid/cix1137},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010073094},
}