@article{fdi:010072720,
  title = {{S}patio-temporal dynamic of malaria in {O}uagadougou, {B}urkina {F}aso, 2011-2015},
  author = {{O}uedraogo, {B}. and {I}noue, {Y}. and {K}ambire, {A}. and {S}allah, {K}. and {D}ieng, {S}. and {T}ine, {R}. and {R}ouamba, {T}. and {H}erbreteau, {V}incent and {S}awadogo, {Y}. and {O}uedraogo, {L}slw and {Y}aka, {P}. and {O}uedraogo, {E}. {K}. and {D}ufour, {J}. {C}. and {G}audart, {J}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground: {G}iven the scarcity of resources in developing countries, malaria treatment requires new strategies that target specific populations, time periods and geographical areas. {W}hile the spatial pattern of malaria transmission is known to vary depending on local conditions, its temporal evolution has yet to be evaluated. {T}he aim of this study was to determine the spatio-temporal dynamic of malaria in the central region of {B}urkina {F}aso, taking into account meteorological factors. {M}ethods: {D}rawing on national databases, 101 health areas were studied from 2011 to 2015, together with weekly meteorological data (temperature, number of rain events, rainfall, humidity, wind speed). {M}eteorological factors were investigated using a principal component analysis ({PCA}) to reduce dimensions and avoid collinearities. {T}he {B}ox-{J}enkins {ARIMA} model was used to test the stationarity of the time series. {T}he impact of meteorological factors on malaria incidence was measured with a general additive model. {A} change-point analysis was performed to detect malaria transmission periods. {F}or each transmission period, malaria incidence was mapped and hotspots were identified using spatial cluster detection. {R}esults: {M}alaria incidence never went below 13.7 cases/10,000 person-weeks. {T}he first and second {PCA} components (constituted by rain/humidity and temperatures, respectively) were correlated with malaria incidence with a lag of 2 weeks. {T}he impact of temperature was significantly non-linear: malaria incidence increased with temperature but declined sharply with high temperature. {A} significant positive linear trend was found for the entire time period. {T}hree transmission periods were detected: low (16.8-29.9 cases/10,000 person-weeks), high (51.7-84.8 cases/10,000 person-weeks), and intermediate (26.7-32.2 cases/10,000 person-weeks). {T}he location of clusters identified as high risk varied little across transmission periods. {C}onclusion: {T}his study highlighted the spatial variability and relative temporal stability of malaria incidence around the capital {O}uagadougou, in the central region of {B}urkina {F}aso. {D}espite increasing efforts in fighting the disease, malaria incidence remained high and increased over the period of study. {H}otspots, particularly those detected for low transmission periods, should be investigated further to uncover the local environmental and behavioural factors of transmission, and hence to allow for the development of better targeted control strategies.},
  keywords = {{M}alaria ; {S}patio-temporal dynamic ; {H}otspots ; {S}patial clusters ; {BURKINA} {FASO} ; {OUAGADOUGOU}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{M}alaria {J}ournal},
  volume = {17},
  numero = {},
  pages = {art. 138 [12 p.]},
  ISSN = {1475-2875},
  year = {2018},
  DOI = {10.1186/s12936-018-2280-y},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010072720},
}