@article{fdi:010072406,
  title = {{P}rojected changes in crop yield mean and variability over {W}est {A}frica in a world 1.5{K} warmer than the pre-industrial era},
  author = {{P}arkes, {B}. and {D}efrance, {D}imitri and {S}ultan, {B}enjamin and {C}iais, {P}. and {W}ang, {X}. {H}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he ability of a region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is an important issue. {T}he {W}est {A}frican population is expected to increase significantly in the next 30 years. {T}he responses of crops to short-term climate change is critical to the population and the decision makers tasked with food security. {T}his leads to three questions: how will crop yields change in the near future? {W}hat influence will climate change have on crop failures? {W}hich adaptation methods should be employed to ameliorate undesirable changes? {A}n ensemble of near-term climate projections are used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in {W}est {A}frica in the recent historic period (1986-2005) and a near-term future when global temperatures are 1.5{K} above pre-industrial levels to assess the change in yield, yield variability and crop failure rate. {F}our crop models were used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in {W}est {A}frica in the historic and future climates. {A}cross the majority of {W}est {A}frica the maize, millet and sorghum yields are shown to fall. {I}n the regions where yields increase, the variability also increases. {T}his increase in variability increases the likelihood of crop failures, which are defined as yield negative anomalies beyond 1 standard deviation during the historic period. {T}he increasing variability increases the frequency of crop failures across {W}est {A}frica. {T}he return time of crop failures falls from 8.8, 9.7 and 10.1 years to 5.2, 6.3 and 5.8 years for maize, millet and sorghum respectively. {T}he adoption of heat-resistant cultivars and the use of captured rainwater have been investigated using one crop model as an idealized sensitivity test. {T}he generalized doption of a cultivar resistant to high-temperature stress during flowering is shown to be more beneficial than using rainwater harvesting.},
  keywords = {{AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}arth {S}ystem {D}ynamics},
  volume = {9},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {119--134},
  ISSN = {2190-4979},
  year = {2018},
  DOI = {10.5194/esd-9-119-2018},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010072406},
}