@article{fdi:010072402,
  title = {{C}urrent and future distribution of {A}edes aegypti and {A}edes albopictus ({D}iptera : {C}ulicidae) in {WHO} {E}astern {M}editerranean {R}egion},
  author = {{D}ucheyne, {E}. and {M}inh, {N}. {N}. {T}. and {H}addad, {N}. and {B}ryssinckx, {W}. and {B}uliva, {E}. and {S}imard, {F}r{\'e}d{\'e}ric and {M}alik, {M}. {R}. and {C}harlier, {J}. and {D}e {W}aele, {V}. and {M}ahmoud, {O}. and {M}ukhtar, {M}. and {B}ouattour, {A}. and {H}ussain, {A}. and {H}endrickx, {G}. and {R}oiz, {D}avid},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground: {A}edes-borne diseases as dengue, zika, chikungunya and yellow fever are an emerging problem worldwide, being transmitted by {A}edes aegypti and {A}edes albopictus. {L}ack of up to date information about the distribution of {A}edes species hampers surveillance and control. {G}lobal databases have been compiled but these did not capture data in the {WHO} {E}astern {M}editerranean {R}egion ({EMR}), and any models built using these datasets fail to identify highly suitable areas where one or both species may occur. {T}he first objective of this study was therefore to update the existing {A}e. aegypti ({L}innaeus, 1762) and {A}e. albopictus ({S}kuse, 1895) compendia and the second objective was to generate species distribution models targeted to the {EMR}. {A} final objective was to engage the {WHO} points of contacts within the region to provide feedback and hence validate all model outputs. {M}ethods: {T}he {A}e. aegypti and {A}e. albopictus compendia provided by {K}raemer et al. ({S}ci {D}ata 2: 150035, 2015; {D}ryad {D}igit {R}epos, 2015) were used as starting points. {T}hese datasets were extended with more recent species and disease data. {I}n the next step, these sets were filtered using the {K}oppen-{G}eiger classification and the {M}ahalanobis distance. {T}he occurrence data were supplemented with pseudo-absence data as input to {R}andom {F}orests. {T}he resulting suitability and maximum risk of establishment maps were combined into hard-classified maps per country for expert validation. {R}esults: {T}he {EMR} datasets consisted of 1995 presence locations for {A}e. aegypti and 2868 presence locations for {A}e. albopictus. {T}he resulting suitability maps indicated that there exist areas with high suitability and/or maximum risk of establishment for these disease vectors in contrast with previous model output. {P}recipitation and host availability, expressed as population density and night-time lights, were the most important variables for {A}e. aegypti. {H}ost availability was the most important predictor in case of {A}e. albopictus. {I}nternal validation was assessed geographically. {E}xternal validation showed high agreement between the predicted maps and the experts' extensive knowledge of the terrain. {C}onclusion: {M}aps of distribution and maximum risk of establishment were created for {A}e. aegypti and {A}e. albopictus for the {WHO} {EMR}. {T}hese region-specific maps highlighted data gaps and these gaps will be filled using targeted monitoring and surveillance. {T}his will increase the awareness and preparedness of the different countries for {A}edes borne diseases.},
  keywords = {{A}edes ; {A}edes aegypti ; {A}edes albopictus ; {D}istribution ; {C}hikungunya ; {D}engue ; {S}patial model ; {S}urveillance ; {Y}ellow fever ; {Z}ika ; {AFGHANISTAN} ; {BAHREIN} ; {DJIBOUTI} ; {EGYPTE} ; {IRAQ} ; {IRAN} ; {JORDANIE} ; {KOWEIT} ; {LIBAN} ; {LIBYE} ; {MAROC} ; {OMAN} ; {PAKISTAN} ; {PALESTINE} ; {QATAR} ; {ARABIE} {SAOUDITE} ; {SOMALIE} ; {SOUDAN} ; {SYRIE} ; {TUNISIE} ; {EMIRATS} {ARABES} {UNIS} ; {YEMEN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{I}nternational {J}ournal of {H}ealth {G}eographics},
  volume = {17},
  numero = {},
  pages = {art. 4 [13 p.]},
  ISSN = {1476-072{X}},
  year = {2018},
  DOI = {10.1186/s12942-018-0125-0},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010072402},
}