@incollection{fdi:010072208,
  title = {{O}perational tools to help stakeholders to protect and alert municipalities facing uncertainties and changes in karst flash floods},
  author = {{E}stupina, {V}.{B}. and {R}aynaud, {F}. and {B}ourgeois, {N}. and {K}ong-{A}-{S}iou, {L}. and {C}ollet, {L}. and {H}aziza, {E}. and {S}ervat, {E}ric},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{F}lash floods are often responsible for many deaths and involve many material damages. {R}egarding {M}editerranean karst aquifers, the complexity of connections, between surface and groundwater, as well as weather non-stationarity patterns, increase difficulties in understanding the basins behaviour and thus warning and protecting people. {F}urthermore, given the recent changes in land use and extreme rainfall events, knowledge of the past floods is no longer sufficient to manage flood risks. {T}herefore the worst realistic flood that could occur should be considered. {P}hysical and processes-based hydrological models are considered among the best ways to forecast floods under diverse conditions. {H}owever, they rarely match with the stakeholders' needs. {I}n fact, the forecasting services, the municipalities, and the civil security have difficulties in running and interpreting data-consuming models in real-time, above all if data are uncertain or non-existent. {T}o face these social and technical difficulties and help stakeholders, this study develops two operational tools derived from these models. {T}hese tools aim at planning real-time decisions given little, changing, and uncertain information available, which are: (i) a hydrological graphical tool (abacus) to estimate flood peak discharge from the karst past state and the forecasted but uncertain intense rainfall; (ii) a {GIS}-based method ({MARE}) to estimate the potential flooded pathways and areas, accounting for runoff and karst contributions and considering land use changes. {T}hen, outputs of these tools are confronted to past and recent floods and municipalities observations, and the impacts of uncertainties and changes on planning decisions are discussed. {T}he use of these tools on the recent 2014 events demonstrated their reliability and interest for stakeholders. {T}his study was realized on {F}rench {M}editerranean basins, in close collaboration with the {F}lood {F}orecasting {S}ervices ({SPC} {M}ed-{O}uest, {SCHAPI}, municipalities).},
  keywords = {{ZONE} {MEDITERRANNENNE}},
  booktitle = {{C}hanges in flood risk and perception in catchments and cities},
  numero = {370},
  pages = {201--208},
  address = {{G}{\¨o}ttingen},
  publisher = {{C}opernicus},
  series = {{P}roceedings - {AISH}},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.5194/piahs-370-201-2015},
  ISSN = {2199-899{X}},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010072208},
}