@article{fdi:010072079,
  title = {{F}uture scenarios of surface water resources availability in north african dams},
  author = {{T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {J}arlan, {L}ionel and {H}anich, {L}. and {S}omot, {S}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{C}limate change may have strong impacts on water resources in developing countries. {I}n {N}orth {A}frica, many dams and reservoirs have been built to secure water availability in the context of a strong inter-annual variability of precipitation. {T}he goal of this study is to evaluate climate change impacts on surface water resources for the largest dams in {A}lgeria, {M}orocco and {T}unisia using high-resolution (12 km) regional climate models ({RCM}) simulations. {T}o evaluate the atmospheric demand (evapotranspiration), two approaches are compared: {T}he direct use of actual evaporation simulated by the {RCM}s, or estimation of reference evapotranspiration computed with the {H}argreaves-{S}amani ({HAR}) equation, relying on air temperature only, and the {FAO}-{P}enman {M}onteith ({PM}) equation, computed with temperature, wind, radiation and relative humidity. {R}esults showed a strong convergence of the {RCM} simulations towards increased temperature and a decrease in precipitation, in particular during spring and the western part of {N}orth {A}frica. {A} decrease in actual evapotranspiration, highly correlated to the decrease in precipitations, is observed throughout the study area. {O}n the opposite, an increase in reference evapotranspiration is observed, with similar changes between {HAR} and {PM} equations, indicating that the main driver of change is the temperature increase. {S}ince the catchments are rather water-limited than energy-limited, despite opposite projections for actual and reference evapotranspiration a decrease of water availability is projected for all basins under all scenarios, with a strong east-to-west gradient. {T}he projected decrease is stronger when considering reference evapotranspiration rather than actual evaporation. {T}hese pessimistic future projections are an incentive to adapt the current management of surface water resources to future climatic conditions.},
  keywords = {{W}ater resources ; {M}aghreb ; {D}ams ; {RCM} ; {E}vapotranspiration ; {C}limate change ; {CORDEX} ; {ALGERIE} ; {MAROC} ; {TUNISIE} ; {AFRIQUE} {DU} {NORD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{W}ater {R}esources {M}anagement},
  volume = {32},
  numero = {4},
  pages = {1291--1306},
  ISSN = {0920-4741},
  year = {2018},
  DOI = {10.1007/s11269-017-1870-8},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010072079},
}