@article{fdi:010072041,
  title = {{I}nvestigating uncertainties in zooplankton composition shifts under climate change scenarios in the {M}editerranean {S}ea},
  author = {{B}enedetti, {F}. and {G}uilhaumon, {F}ran{\c{c}}ois and {A}dloff, {F}. and {A}yata, {S}. {D}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{E}nsemble niche modelling has become a common framework to predict changes in assemblages composition under climate change scenarios. {T}he amount of uncertainty generated by the different components of this framework has rarely been assessed. {I}n the marine realm forecasts have usually focused on taxa representing the top of the marine food-web, thus overlooking their basal component: the plankton. {C}alibrating environmental niche models at the global scale, we modelled the habitat suitability of 106 copepod species and estimated the dissimilarity between present and future zooplanktonic assemblages in the surface {M}editerranean {S}ea. {W}e identified the patterns (species replacement versus nestedness) driving the predicted dissimilarity, and quantified the relative contributions of different uncertainty sources: environmental niche models, greenhouse gas emission scenarios, circulation model configurations and species prevalence. {O}ur results confirm that the choice of the niche modelling method is the greatest source of uncertainty in habitat suitability projections. {P}resence-only and presence-absence methods provided different visions of the niches, which subsequently lead to different future scenarios of biodiversity changes. {N}estedness with decline in species richness is the pattern driving dissimilarity between present and future copepod assemblages. {O}ur projections contrast with those reported for higher trophic levels, suggesting that different components of the pelagic food-web may respond discordantly to future climatic changes.},
  keywords = {{MEDITERRANEE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}cography},
  volume = {41},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {345--360},
  ISSN = {0906-7590},
  year = {2018},
  DOI = {10.1111/ecog.02434},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010072041},
}