@article{fdi:010071876,
  title = {{Q}uantitative assessment of the risk of release of foot-and-mouth disease virus via export of bull semen from {I}srael},
  author = {{M}eyer, {A}. and {Z}amir, {L}. and {G}ilboa, {A}. {B}. and {G}elman, {B}. and {P}feiffer, {D}. {U}. and {V}ergne, {T}imoth{\'e}e},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{V}arious foot-and-mouth disease ({FMD}) virus strains circulate in the {M}iddle {E}ast, causing frequent episodes of {FMD} outbreaks among {I}sraeli livestock. {S}ince the virus is highly resistant in semen, artificial insemination with contaminated bull semen may lead to the infection of the receiver cow. {A}s a non-{FMD}-free country with vaccination, {I}srael is currently engaged in trading bull semen only with countries of the same status. {T}he purpose of this study was to assess the risk of release of {FMD} virus through export of bull semen in order to estimate the risk for {FMD}-free countries considering purchasing {I}sraeli bull semen. {A} stochastic risk assessment model was used to estimate this risk, defined as the annual likelihood of exporting at least one ejaculate of bull semen contaminated with viable {FMD} virus. {A} total of 45 scenarios were assessed to account for uncertainty and variability around specific parameter estimates and to evaluate the effect of various mitigation measures, such as performing a preexport test on semen ejaculates. {U}nder the most plausible scenario, the annual likelihood of exporting bull semen contaminated with {FMD} virus had a median of 1.3 * 10(-7) for an export of 100 ejaculates per year. {T}his corresponds to one infected ejaculate exported every 7 million years. {U}nder the worst-case scenario, the median of the risk rose to 7.9 * 10(-5), which is equivalent to the export of one infected ejaculate every 12,000 years. {S}ensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential parameter is the probability of viral excretion in infected bulls.},
  keywords = {{B}ull semen ; export risk assessment ; foot-and-mouth disease ; {I}srael ; {ISRAEL}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{R}isk {A}nalysis},
  volume = {37},
  numero = {12},
  pages = {2350--2359},
  ISSN = {0272-4332},
  year = {2017},
  DOI = {10.1111/risa.12799},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010071876},
}