%0 Book Section
%9 OS CH : Chapitres d'ouvrages scientifiques
%A Pontius, R.G.
%A Castella, Jean-Christophe
%A de Nijs, T.
%A Duan, Z.
%A Fotsing, E.
%A Goldstein, N.
%A Kok, K.
%A Koomen, E.
%A Lippitt, C. D.
%A McConnell, W.
%A Sood, A. M.
%A Pijanowski, B
%A Verburg, P. H.
%A Veldkamp, A. T.
%T Lessons and challenges in land change modeling derived from synthesis of cross-case comparisons
%B Trends in spatial analysis and modelling
%C Cham
%D 2018
%E Behnisch, M.
%E Meinel, G.
%L fdi:010071831
%G ENG
%I Springer
%@ 978-3-319-52520-4
%N 19
%P 143-164
%R 10.1007/978-3-319-52522-8_8
%U https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010071831
%> https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/depot/2017-12-20/010071831.pdf
%W Horizon (IRD)
%X This chapter presents the lessons and challenges in land change modeling that emerged from years of reflection and numerous panel discussions at scientific conferences concerning a collaborative cross-case comparison in which the authors have participated. We summarize the lessons as nine challenges grouped under three themes: mapping, modeling, and learning. The mapping challenges are: to prepare data appropriately, to select relevant resolutions, and to differentiate types of land change. The modeling challenges are: to separate calibration from validation, to predict small amounts of change, and to interpret the influence of quantity error. The learning challenges are: to use appropriate map comparison measurements, to learn about land change processes, and to collaborate openly. To quantify the pattern validation of predictions of change, we recommend that modelers report as a percentage of the spatial extent the following measurements: misses, hits, wrong hits and false alarms. The chapter explains why the lessons and challenges are essential for the future research agenda concerning land change modeling.
%S Geotechnologies and the Environment
%$ 098 ; 020