@article{fdi:010071325,
  title = {{T}he effects of climate change on a mega-diverse country: predicted shifts in mammalian species richness and turnover in continental {E}cuador},
  author = {{I}turralde-{P}olit, {P}. and {D}angles, {O}livier and {B}urneo, {S}. {F}. and {M}eynard, {C}. {N}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{E}cuador has some of the greatest biodiversity in the world, sheltering global biodiversity hotspots in lowland and mountain regions. {C}limate change will likely have a major effect on these regions, but the consequences for faunal diversity and conservation remain unclear. {T}o address this issue, we used an ensemble of eight species distribution models to predict future shifts and identify areas of high changes in species richness and species turnover for 201 mammals. {W}e projected the distributions using two different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon and contrasted two extreme dispersal scenarios (no dispersal vs. full dispersal). {O}ur results showed extended distributional shifts all over the country. {F}or most groups, our results predicted that the current diversity of mammals in {E}cuador would decrease significantly under all climate change scenarios and dispersal assumptions. {T}he {N}orthern {A}ndes and the {A}mazonian region would remain diversity hotspots but with a significant decrease in the number of species. {A}ll predictions, including the most conservative scenarios in terms of dispersal and climate change, predicted major changes in the distribution of mammalian species diversity in {E}cuador. {P}rimates might be the most severely affected because they would have fewer suitable areas, compared with other mammals. {O}ur work emphasizes the need for sound conservation strategies in {E}cuador to mitigate the effects of climate change {A}bstract in {S}panish is available with online material.},
  keywords = {climate change scenarios ; {C}li{M}ond ; conservation assessment ; ensemble forecasting ; species range ; species richness ; species turnover ; {EQUATEUR}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}iotropica},
  volume = {49},
  numero = {6},
  pages = {821--831},
  ISSN = {0006-3606},
  year = {2017},
  DOI = {10.1111/btp.12467},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010071325},
}