@article{fdi:010071319,
  title = {{R}obust projected weakening of winter monsoon winds over the {A}rabian {S}ea under climate change},
  author = {{P}arvathi, {V}. and {S}uresh, {I}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {I}zumo, {T}akeshi and {V}ialard, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he response of the {I}ndian winter monsoon to climate change has received considerably less attention than that of the summer monsoon. {W}e show here that all {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject {P}hase 5 ({CMIP}5) models display a consistent reduction (of 6.5% for {R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athways 8.5 and 3.5% for 4.5, on an average) of the winter monsoon winds over the {A}rabian {S}ea at the end of 21st century. {T}his projected reduction weakens but remains robust when corrected for overestimated winter {A}rabian {S}ea winds in {CMIP}5. {T}his weakening is driven by a reduction in the interhemispheric sea level pressure gradient resulting from enhanced warming of the dry {A}rabian {P}eninsula relative to the southern {I}ndian {O}cean. {T}he wind weakening reduces winter oceanic heat losses to the atmosphere and deepening of convective mixed layer in the northern {A}rabian {S}ea and hence can potentially inhibit the seasonal chlorophyll bloom that contributes substantially to the {A}rabian {S}ea annual productivity. {P}lain {L}anguage {S}ummary {T}he {I}ndian summer monsoon response to climate change has been previously the focus of many studies. {T}he {I}ndian winter monsoon-projected response to climate change is, however, largely unexplored. {T}his is the first study to report a robust weakening of the {I}ndian winter monsoon winds over the {A}rabian {S}ea in two {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject {P}hase 5 scenarios (an unmitigated and a mitigated one). {T}he wind weakening leads to reduced winter oceanic convective overturning in the northern {A}rabian {S}ea. {T}his winter convection is the key mechanism for a productivity (winter) bloom that strongly contributes to the {A}rabian {S}ea annual productivity. {T}he projected winter monsoon weakening may thus reduce the {A}rabian {S}ea productivity. {W}e also show a rainfall increase that could affect water supply in tropical {I}ndian {O}cean islands and {E}astern {A}frica.},
  keywords = {{I}ndian winter monsoon ; {A}rabian {S}ea ; climate change ; {CMIP}5 ; {RCP} ; {OCEAN} {INDIEN} {ILES} ; {AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{EST} ; {ARABIE} {MER}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}eophysical {R}esearch {L}etters},
  volume = {44},
  numero = {19},
  pages = {9833--9843},
  ISSN = {0094-8276},
  year = {2017},
  DOI = {10.1002/2017gl075098},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010071319},
}