@article{fdi:010071278,
  title = {{T}emporal dynamic of malaria in a suburban area along the {N}iger {R}iver},
  author = {{S}issoko, {M}. {S}. and {S}issoko, {K}. and {K}amate, {B}. and {S}amake, {Y}. and {G}oita, {S}. and {D}abo, {A}. and {Y}ena, {M}. and {D}essay, {N}adine and {P}iarroux, {R}. and {D}oumbo, {O}. {K}. and {G}audart, {J}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground: {E}ven if rainfall and temperature are factors classically associated to malaria, little is known about other meteorological factors, their variability and combinations related to malaria, in association with river height variations. {F}urthermore, in suburban area, urbanization and growing population density should be assessed in relation to these environmental factors. {T}he aim of this study was to assess the impact of combined environmental, meteorological and hydrological factors on malaria incidence through time in the context of urbanization. {M}ethods: {P}opulation observational data were prospectively collected. {C}linical malaria was defined as the presence of parasites in addition to clinical symptoms. {M}eteorological and hydrological factors were measured daily. {F}or each factors variation indices were estimated. {U}rbanization was yearly estimated assessing satellite imaging and field investigations. {P}rincipal component analysis was used for dimension reduction and factors combination. {L}ags between malaria incidences and the main components were assessed by cross-correlation functions. {G}eneralized additive model was used to assess relative impact of different environmental components, taking into account lags, and modelling non-linear relationships. {C}hange-point analysis was used to determine transmission periods within years. {R}esults: {M}alaria incidences were dominated by annual periodicity and varied through time without modification of the dynamic, with no impact of the urbanization. {T}he main meteorological factor associated with malaria was a combination of evaporation, humidity and rainfall, with a lag of 3 months. {T}he relationship between combined temperature factors showed a linear impact until reaching high temperatures limiting malaria incidence, with a lag 3.25 months. {H}eight and variation of the river were related to malaria incidence (respectively 6 week lag and no lag). {C}onclusions: {T}he study emphasizes no decreasing trend of malaria incidence despite accurate access to care and control strategies in accordance to international recommendations. {F}urthermore, no decreasing trend was showed despite the urbanization of the area. {M}alaria transmission remain increase 3 months after the beginning of the dry season. {A}ddition to evaporation versus humidity/rainfall, nonlinear relationship for temperature and river height and variations have to be taken into account when implementing malaria control programmes.},
  keywords = {{M}alaria ; {T}ransmission heterogeneity ; {E}nvironmental risk factors ; {NIGER} {COURS} {D}'{EAU}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{M}alaria {J}ournal},
  volume = {16},
  numero = {},
  pages = {art. 420 [10 p.]},
  ISSN = {1475-2875},
  year = {2017},
  DOI = {10.1186/s12936-017-2068-5},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010071278},
}