@article{fdi:010071238,
  title = {{E}stimating changes in global temperature since the preindustrial period},
  author = {{H}awkins, {E}. and {O}rtega, {P}. and {S}uckling, {E}. and {S}churer, {A}. and {H}egerl, {G}. and {J}ones, {P}. and {J}oshi, {M}. and {O}sborn, {T}. {J}. and {M}asson-{D}elmotte, {V}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette and {T}horne, {P}. and van {O}ldenborgh, {G}. {J}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {U}nited {N}ations {F}ramework {C}onvention on {C}limate {C}hange ({UNFCCC}) process agreed in {P}aris to limit global surface temperature rise to well below 2 degrees {C} above pre-industrial levels. {B}ut what period is preindustrial? {S}omewhat remarkably, this is not defined within the {UNFCCC}'s many agreements and protocols. {N}or is it defined in the {IPCC}'s {F}ifth {A}ssessment {R}eport ({AR}5) in the evaluation of when particular temperature levels might be reached because no robust definition of the period exists. {H}ere we discuss the important factors to consider when defining a preindustrial period, based on estimates of historical radiative forcings and the availability of climate observations. {T}here is no perfect period, but we suggest that 1720-1800 is the most suitable choice when discussing global temperature limits. {W}e then estimate the change in global average temperature since preindustrial using a range of approaches based on observations, radiative forcings, global climate model simulations, and proxy evidence. {O}ur assessment is that this preindustrial period was likely 0.55 degrees-0.80 degrees {C} cooler than 1986-2005 and that 2015 was likely the first year in which global average temperature was more than 1 degrees {C} above preindustrial levels. {W}e provide some recommendations for how this assessment might be improved in the future and suggest that reframing temperature limits with a modern baseline would be inherently less uncertain and more policy relevant.},
  keywords = {{MONDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}ulletin of the {A}merican {M}eteorological {S}ociety},
  volume = {98},
  numero = {9},
  pages = {1841--1856},
  ISSN = {0003-0007},
  year = {2017},
  DOI = {10.1175/bams-d-16-0007.1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010071238},
}