@article{fdi:010071074,
  title = {{E}conomic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics : demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in {V}ietnam},
  author = {{D}elabouglise, {A}. and {C}hoisy, {M}arc and {P}han, {T}. {D}. and {A}ntoine-{M}oussiaux, {N}. and {P}eyre, {M}. and {V}u, {T}. {D}. and {P}feiffer, {D}. {U}. and {F}ournie, {G}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{W}hile climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. {U}sing a combination of methods-wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling-we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of {H}5{N}1 {H}ighly {P}athogenic {A}vian {I}nfluenza in the domestic poultry population of {V}ietnam. {W}e found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the {N}orth of the country, this is not the case in the {C}entre and the {S}outh. {I}n contrast, temporal patterns of {H}5{N}1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high {H}5{N}1 incidence coincide with {L}unar {N}ew {Y}ear festival, occurring in {J}anuary-{F}ebruary, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. {Y}et, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during {L}unar {N}ew {Y}ear festival throughout the country. {T}o meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. {T}his study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens.},
  keywords = {{VIET} {NAM}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{S}cientific {R}eports - {N}ature},
  volume = {7},
  numero = {},
  pages = {art. 5905 [14 p.]},
  ISSN = {2045-2322},
  year = {2017},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010071074},
}