@article{fdi:010070977, title = {{D}rivers of change in the relative abundance of dugongs in {N}ew {C}aledonia}, author = {{C}leguer, {C}. and {G}arrigue, {C}laire and {F}uentes, {M}mpb and {E}veringham, {Y}. and {H}agihara, {R}. and {H}amann, {M}. and {P}ayri, {C}laude and {M}arsh, {H}.}, editor = {}, language = {{ENG}}, abstract = {{C}ontext. {S}ound understanding of temporal changes in the abundance of wildlife species is required for assessing their status and for effective conservation and management. {I}n {N}ew {C}aledonia, a single baseline aerial survey of dugongs in 2003 estimated a population of 2026 (+/- 553 s.e.) individuals. {A} second, similar survey in 2008 produced a lower estimate of 606 (+/- 200 s.e.) individuals, leading to concerns that the dugong population was experiencing a decline. {A}ims. {T}his study used data collected from additional aerial surveys with the aim of updating information on the current size of the dugong population in {N}ew {C}aledonia and investigating the drivers of change in the estimates. {M}ethods. {F}our additional surveys were conducted: one in each of the cool ({J}une) and warm ({N}ovember) seasons of 2011 and 2012 around the main {I}sland of {N}ew {C}aledonia. {D}ugong relative abundance and density were calculated and compared among survey years and survey regions. {D}rivers of change in the dugong population size were then investigated. {K}ey results. {T}he abundance estimates obtained from our four surveys ranged from 649 (+/- 195 s.e.) to 1227 (+/- 296 s.e.) dugongs. {T}hese new results were not significantly different to the 2008 estimate but were significantly lower than the 2003 estimate. {T}here was no significant variation in the proportion of calves throughout the entire time series of surveys. {C}onclusions. {T}he dugong population of {N}ew {C}aledonia was relatively stable between 2008 and 2012. {W}e could not find sufficient evidence to show whether the discrepancy between 2003 and the remainder of the time series is due to a real decline in the population or the result of the confounding effects of variation in environmental conditions, animal behaviour and sampling biases. {I}mplications. {T}he stability of the dugong population between 2008 and 2012 is a positive outcome for local conservation and management of dugongs. {T}his study also highlights the advisability of replicating baseline surveys to enable robust interpretation of temporal variation in population size estimates, and in turn, to improve the management of wildlife species.}, keywords = {abundance ; aerial survey ; dugong ; wildlife management ; {NOUVELLE} {CALEDONIE}}, booktitle = {}, journal = {{W}ildlife {R}esearch}, volume = {44}, numero = {4}, pages = {365--376}, ISSN = {1035-3712}, year = {2017}, DOI = {10.1071/wr16133}, URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070977}, }