@article{fdi:010070392,
  title = {{C}ombined interventions to reduce {HIV} incidence in {K}wa{Z}ulu-{N}atal : a modelling study},
  author = {{B}laizot, {S}. and {H}uerga, {H}. and {R}iche, {B}. and {E}llman, {T}. and {S}hroufi, {A}. and {E}tard, {J}ean-{F}ran{\c{c}}ois and {E}cochard, {R}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground: {C}ombined prevention interventions, including early antiretroviral therapy initiation, may substantially reduce {HIV} incidence in hyperendemic settings. {O}ur aim was to assess the potential short-term impact of combined interventions on {HIV} spreading in the adult population of {M}bongolwane and {E}showe ({K}wa{Z}ulu-{N}atal, {S}outh {A}frica) using sex-and age-specific scenarios, and age-targeted interventions. {M}ethods: {A} mathematical model was used with data on adults (15-59 years) from the {M}bongolwane and {E}showe {HIV} {I}mpact in {P}opulation {S}urvey to compare the effects of various interventions on the {HIV} incidence rate. {T}hese interventions included increase in antiretroviral therapy ({ART}) coverage with extended eligibility criteria, increase in voluntary medical male circumcision ({VMMC}), and implementation of pre-exposure prophylaxis ({P}r{EP}) among women. {R}esults: {W}ith no additional interventions to the ones in place at the time of the survey ({ART} at {CD}4 < 350 and {VMMC}), incidence will decrease by 24% compared to the baseline rate. {T}he implementation of " {ART} at {CD}4 < 500" or "{ART} for all" would reduce further the incidence rate by additional 8% and 15% respectively by 4 years and 20% and 34% by 10 years. {I}mpacts would be higher with age-targeted scenarios than without. {C}onclusions: {I}n {M}bongolwane and {E}showe, implementation of the new {S}outh {A}frican guidelines, recommending {ART} initiation regardless of {CD}4 count, would accelerate incidence reduction. {I}n this setting, combining these guidelines, {VMMC}, and {P}r{EP} among young women could be an effective strategy in reducing the incidence to low levels.},
  keywords = {{HIV} ; {M}athematical models ; {A}ntiretroviral therapy ; {M}ale circumcision ; {P}re-exposure prophylaxis ; {S}outh {A}frica ; {AFRIQUE} {DU} {SUD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{BMC} {I}nfectious {D}iseases},
  volume = {17},
  numero = {},
  pages = {art. 522 [11 p.]},
  ISSN = {1471-2334},
  year = {2017},
  DOI = {10.1186/s12879-017-2612-5},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070392},
}