@article{fdi:010070295,
  title = {{E}valuating the robustness of conceptual rainfall-runoff models under climate variability in northern {T}unisia},
  author = {{D}akhlaoui, {H}. and {R}uelland, {D}. and {T}ramblay, {Y}ves and {B}argaoui, {Z}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}o evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that must be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. {T}he aim of this study was thus to assess the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models ({GR}4j, {HBV} and {IHACRES}) on five basins in northern {T}unisia under long-term climate variability, in the light of available future climate scenarios for this region. {T}he robustness of the models was evaluated using a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period that simultaneously accounted for precipitation and temperature conditions. {T}he study catchments include the main hydrographical basins in northern {T}unisia, which produce most of the surface water resources in the country. {A} 30-year period (1970-2000) was used to capture a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. {T}he calibration was based on the {K}ling-{G}upta {E}fficiency ({KGE}) criterion, while model transferability was evaluated based on the {N}ash-{S}utcliffe efficiency criterion and volume error. {T}he three hydrological models were shown to behave similarly under climate variability. {T}he models simulated the runoff pattern better when transferred to wetter and colder conditions than to drier and warmer ones. {I}t was shown that their robustness became unacceptable when climate conditions involved a decrease of more than 25% in annual precipitation and an increase of more than +1.75 degrees {C} in annual mean temperatures. {T}he reduction in model robustness may be partly due to the climate dependence of some parameters. {W}hen compared to precipitation and temperature projections in the region, the limits of transferability obtained in this study are generally respected for short and middle term. {F}or long term projections under the most pessimistic emission gas scenarios, the limits of transferability are generally not respected, which may hamper the use of conceptual models for hydrological projections in northern {T}unisia.},
  keywords = {{R}ainfall-runoff modelling ; {H}ydro-climate variability ; {M}odel robustness ; {U}ncertainty ; {T}unisia ; {TUNISIE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {H}ydrology},
  volume = {550},
  numero = {},
  pages = {201--217},
  ISSN = {0022-1694},
  year = {2017},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.04.032},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070295},
}