@article{fdi:010070248,
  title = {{C}onsequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the {S}ahelian population vulnerability},
  author = {{D}efrance, {D}imitri and {R}amstein, {G}. and {C}harbit, {S}. and {V}rac, {M}. and {F}amien, {A}. {M}. and {S}ultan, {B}enjamin and {S}wingedouw, {D}. and {D}umas, {C}. and {G}emenne, {F}. and {A}lvarez-{S}olas, {J}. and {V}anderlinden, {J}. {P}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. {R}ecent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest {I}ntergovernmental {P}anel on {C}limate {C}hange report. {T}he ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. {D}uring the last glacial.deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the {S}ahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. {I}n the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the {S}ahelian agro-ecosystem. {U}sing a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the {R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athways 8.5 ({RCP}8.5) baseline experiment a {G}reenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. {O}ur model response to freshwater discharge coming from {G}reenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the {W}est {A}frican monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. {C}ombined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. {W}e estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the {S}ahel by the end of this century. {O}n top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the {S}ahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid {G}reenland melting.},
  keywords = {climate change ; ice sheet melting ; impact ; vulnerability ; {S}ahel ; {GROENLAND} ; {ATLANTIQUE} {NORD} ; {AFRIQUE} {DE} l'{OUEST} ; {SAHEL}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}roceedings of the {N}ational {A}cademy of {S}ciences of the {U}nited {S}tates of {A}merica},
  volume = {114},
  numero = {25},
  pages = {6533--6538},
  ISSN = {0027-8424},
  year = {2017},
  DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1619358114},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070248},
}