Publications des scientifiques de l'IRD

Defrance Dimitri, Ramstein G., Charbit S., Vrac M., Famien A. M., Sultan Benjamin, Swingedouw D., Dumas C., Gemenne F., Alvarez-Solas J., Vanderlinden J. P. (2017). Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114 (25), p. 6533-6538. ISSN 0027-8424.

Titre du document
Consequences of rapid ice sheet melting on the Sahelian population vulnerability
Année de publication
2017
Type de document
Article référencé dans le Web of Science WOS:000403687300037
Auteurs
Defrance Dimitri, Ramstein G., Charbit S., Vrac M., Famien A. M., Sultan Benjamin, Swingedouw D., Dumas C., Gemenne F., Alvarez-Solas J., Vanderlinden J. P.
Source
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2017, 114 (25), p. 6533-6538 ISSN 0027-8424
The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial.deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting.
Plan de classement
Sciences fondamentales / Techniques d'analyse et de recherche [020] ; Sciences du milieu [021] ; Limnologie physique / Océanographie physique [032] ; Hydrologie [062] ; Sciences du monde végétal [076] ; Démographie [108]
Description Géographique
GROENLAND ; ATLANTIQUE NORD ; AFRIQUE DE l'OUEST ; SAHEL
Localisation
Fonds IRD [F B010070248]
Identifiant IRD
fdi:010070248
Contact